Future of Terrorism

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Terrorism
“On September the 11th, enemies of freedom
committed an act of war against our country… Either
you are with us or you are with the terrorists.
~ President George W. Bush, 20 Sep 2001
“…the American people should remain vigilant….
Those plotting against us seek not only to undermine
our security, but also the open society and the values
that we cherish as Americans.
~ President Barack Obama, 28 Dec 2009
Overview
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History
Definitions
Characteristics, Objectives, & Tactics
US National Policy and Military Policy
Future of Terrorism
History
 Terrorism to achieve political agendas isn’t new
 Jewish dissidents opposed Roman rule (48 C.E.)
 Islamic sect called Hashshashin pursued
“righteous causes”
 Crusaders employed rape as terror tactic
Hassan-i Sabbah, Iranian
missionary who founded
the Hashshashin
History
 Since 1990s, religious
fundamentalism emerged as
primary force for terror
 Weapons proliferation
narrowed the gap between the
firepower of the state and
dissidents
Radical Shiite Muqtada al-Sadr
Definitions
 Walter Laqueur:
 “Terrorism constitutes the illegitimate use of force to achieve a
political objective when innocent people are targeted.”
 Department of Defense:
 “The unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence against
individuals or property to coerce or intimidate governments or
societies, often to achieve political, religious, or ideological
objectives.”
Joint Pub. 3-07.2
The unlawful use of violence or threat of violence to instill
fear and coerce governments or societies. Terrorism is
often motivated by religious, political, or other ideological
beliefs and committed in the pursuit of goals that are
usually political.
- Joint Publication 3-07.2, Antiterrorism
Key Criteria
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Violence
Political goal
Psychological impact and fear
Targeting of noncombatants
Guerilla vs. Terrorism
Guerilla
Targets
Intended
Impact
Terrorism
Mostly military, police,
State symbols, political
or political opponents opponents, and the public
at large
Mainly physical
Psychological coercion
attrition of the enemy
Tactics
Commando-type
operations
Specialized tactics:
kidnapping, car bombs,
hijacking, etc.
International
Legality
Yes, if follow rules of
armed conduct
No
Typologies of Terrorism
 Political
 Force governments to change structure or
policies, or to achieve radical societal
change
 Religious
 Objectives/actions divinely guided; often
tied to ethnic and nationalist identities
 Social
 “Special interest” (e.g., animal rights)
2004: Train bombings in Spain
Group responsible for attack has
link to Al Qaeda
Categories of Terrorism
 Domestic Terrorism
 Terrorism perpetrated by the citizens of a country against their
fellow citizens
 International terrorism
 Terrorism in which planning and execution of the terrorist act
transcends national boundaries
Characteristics
 Status:
 Most from middle class backgrounds, with some from extreme
wealth
 Education:
 Intelligent and literate, with varying levels of formal education
 Age:
 Operational members aged between 20-35, while suicide bombers
tend to be younger
 Gender:
 Most are male but not exclusively
“There’s nothing wrong with being a terrorist, as long as you win.”
(Paul Watson, Sea Shepherd Conservation Society)
Objectives of Terrorism
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Attract attention for cause
Demonstrate group’s power
Show government’s lack of power
Exact revenge
Obtain logistical support
Cause a government to overreact
Terrorist Planning Cycle
1. Broad target selection: Collection of data on large number
of potential targets
2. Intelligence and surveillance: Information gathering on the
targets with greatest possibility of success (e.g., schedules,
security, layout, etc.)
3. Specific target selection: Decision point!
Terrorist Planning Cycle
4. Pre-attack surveillance and planning: Quantity and
quality of data gathering increases, and usually is
gathered over days to weeks
5. Attack rehearsal: Often includes relocation to target
site, testing of security responsiveness and escape
routes, and checking equipment performance
Terrorist Planning Cycle
6.
7.
Action: Generally, goal is to get in, get the job done, and get
out before security forces can react
Escape and exploitation: Escape plans well rehearsed and
exploitation of successful attack vital to achieve desired
effect
Tactics
Assassination
Arson
Bombing
Hostage taking
Kidnapping
Hijacking
Seizures
Raids
Sabotage
Threat or Hoax
Use of WMD
“Between now and 2015 terrorist tactics will become increasingly sophisticated and designed
to achieve mass casualties.” (National Intelligence Council)
Tactics
 Assassination
 Murder of prominent persons,
symbolic enemies, or traitors who
defect from the group
 Arson
 Requires little technical knowledge,
poses low risk to terrorist, and can
cause significant destruction
Egyptian President Anwar al-Sadat
(top right) and Israeli Prime Minister
Yitzhak Rabin (below)
Tactics
 Bombing—Explosive devices
commonly employed in warfare are
now an integral part of the
terrorist’s arsenal
 Oct 1983: Marine barracks in Beirut; 245
were killed and 146 wounded
 Oct 2000: Navy destroyer USS Cole
attacked, resulting in the death of 17
sailors and 39 injured
Tactics
 Improvised explosive device (IED)
is the terrorist’s weapon of choice:
 Inexpensive to produce
 Detonation techniques
 Low risk to the perpetrator
 Placement/concealment
 High attention-getting capacity
Tactics
 Hostage taking
 Overt seizure of individuals with the
intent of gaining publicity or
concessions in return for release of the
hostage
 Kidnapping
 Covert seizure of one or more specific
person(s) in order to extract specific
demands
Sep 2004: Chechen terrorists took
hundreds of school children and adults
hostage in Beslan, Russia
Rescued
Oct 2002: Ingrid Betancourt kidnapped
by the FARC; still missing
Tactics
 Hijacking or Skyjacking
 Normally executed to produce a spectacular
hostage situation; any passenger transport
can be used
 Seizure
 Usually involves a building or object that has
value in the eyes of the audience
1976: Highjacked Flight 139 out of Tel Aviv
was diverted to Entebbe, Uganda. Israeli
forces, led by Col Yoni Netanyahu, rescued
the hostages in Operation Thunderbolt.
Netanyahu was the only military casualty.
Tactics
 Raids/Attacks on Facilities
 Done to gain access to media, acquire
resources, and/or demonstrate
government’s inability to secure
critical facilities
 Sabotage
 Destruction of equipment or
infrastructure to demonstrate
vulnerability of society and to disrupt
services
April 2005: Insurgents led a
coordinated attack on Abu Ghraib
prison; intended to free detainees
and kill US forces… FAILED!
Tactics
 Threat or Hoaxes
 Threat that causes diversion of
resources; can dull effectiveness of
preventive or countermeasures
 Use of WMD
 Chemical weapons used in the
past… many groups have expressed
desire to acquire WMD
1995: Terror group Aum Shinrikyo
released Sarin gas in the Tokyo subway,
injuring thousands and killing 12 people
“Acquiring weapons (WMD) for the defense of Muslims is a religious duty.”
(Osama Bin Laden)
Terrorist Attacks 1970-2007
US Terror Policy
 First articulated by the Reagan administration and
reaffirmed by every president since
 Four enduring policy principles
 Make no concessions to terrorists
 Bring terrorists to justice for their crimes
 Isolate and apply pressure on states that sponsor terrorism to force
them to change their behavior
 Bolster the counterterrorist capabilities of those countries that work
with the United States and require assistance
National Strategy for
Combating Terrorism
 Advance effective democracies as the long-term antidote to
the ideology of terrorism;
 Prevent attacks by terrorist networks;
 Deny weapons of mass destruction to rogue states and
terrorist allies who seek to use them;
 Deny terrorists the support and sanctuary of rogue states;
 Deny terrorists control of any nation they would use as a
base and launching pad for terror; and
 Lay the foundations and build the institutions and
structures we need to carry the fight forward against terror
and help ensure our ultimate success.
US Policy Post 9/11
 Dept. of Homeland Security established: Third largest
cabinet department after DOD and VA
 Incorporates existing agencies, including US Coast Guard,
Secret Service, and CIS
 Coordinates capabilities of 22+ agencies to:
 Secure borders, transportation, critical infrastructure
 Synthesize/analyze homeland security intelligence
 Spearheads domestic counter-terrorism efforts
US Military Policy
 Guiding principles:
 US forces will continue to engage
 Force protection will be a major consideration
 DOD addresses terrorism from
two distinct perspectives:
 Counterterrorism (offensive)
 Anti-terrorism (defensive)
 Intelligence critical component for success
US Military Policy
 Counterterrorism
 Offensive measures taken to prevent, deter, and respond to
terrorism include Operation El Dorado Canyon and the GWOT
 Antiterrorism
 Defensive measures to reduce vulnerability include facility
hardening, setting buildings back from roads/parking lots, and
limiting access to military posts
Force Protection
 Force Protection—An integrated application of
offensive/defensive actions that deter, detect, preempt,
mitigate, or negate threats against or hazards to Air Force
air and space operations and assets, based on an acceptable
level of risk (JP 1-02)
 Relocation of deployed forces out of
heavily populated areas to an isolated base
 Deployment of floating barriers around
warships in high-risk areas
“Asymmetric challenges can arise across the spectrum of conflict that
will confront US forces in a theater of operations or on US soil.”
(National Intelligence Council)
Future of Terrorism
 Terrorists are a dynamic enemy…and are adapting to the
challenges posed by developing societies
 Groups like Al Qaeda and Hezbollah benefit from and are
exploiting globalization, even as they fight against it
 Terrorist groups are becoming more network based,
encouraging loosely organized, self-financed organizational
structure
Future of Terrorism
 International or transnational cooperation among terrorist
groups is becoming the norm
 WMD proliferation amplifies the danger of broad, networkbased terrorism.
 Terrorists increasingly display a willingness to use
catastrophic violence to cause mass casualties and
destruction
Future of Terrorism
 Other trends:
 Intense motivational extremism
 Flexible organization structure
 Aggressive training to improve operational capability
 Increasing exploitation of media
 Increasing mass casualties and chaos through use of more
advanced weapons
“States with poor governance; ethnic, cultural, or religious tensions; weak
economies; and porous borders will be prime breeding grounds for terrorism.”
(National Intelligence Council)
Summary

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
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
History
Definitions
Characteristics, Objectives, & Tactics
US National Policy and Military Policy
Future of Terrorism
Questions?
“We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will
not fail.” —President Bush, 20 Sep 2001
Homework
 Prepare for Lesson 7
 The Need for Cross-Cultural Competence
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