PEACE INDEX - NOVEMBER 2001
Ephraim Ya'ar and Tamar Hermann
Contrary to expectations, the recent vicious Palestinian terrorist attacks against Israel
and the unprecedented toll they exacted in terms of blood and human lives, the stands
of the Israeli public have not changed. Even now the fears of a deterioration in Israel's
economic situation outnumber the fears for national security. True, the sense of
danger pertaining to both these domains is acute, but the percentage of those who
believe that Israel is in danger, or in great danger, due to its economic situation today
exceeds the percentage of those who consider it to be substantially endangered by the
security situation. At the same time, on both levels, the feelings of personal danger are
lower than those of collective danger. In this light, the percentage of those who
believed -- prior to last week's serious attacks and in their wake -- that the government
efforts should be focused on socio-economic problems is higher than the number of
respondents who feel that the government should concentrate its efforts on
negotiations with the Palestinians. A decisive majority of the Israeli public also feels
that -- notwithstanding the security and political problems -- the government should
have done more to resolve the socio-economic issues.
The findings of this survey also indicate that the large majority believes that the inner
strength of Israel's society is greater than that of the Palestinians, even after the recent
attacks, and that Israel can therefore hold out for a longer period of time even if the
violence continues at length. On the individual level -- a decisive majority states that
it has no intention of emigrating from Israel because of the intifadah. These are the
principal findings of two successive polls, carried out closely together, on the Peace
Index. The first (regular monthly poll) was conducted on 27-29 November, prior to
the large-scale bombing attacks in Jerusalem and Haifa, and the second (special poll)
was held on 3 and 4 December.
As stated, fear of an outside threat to Israel is considerable, but has not substantively
changed in the wake of the suicide bombings: In both polls, some 60% of Jewish
respondents felt that Israel's security is in fairly great or very great danger. Where
Israel's economic situation is concerned, in both polls 70% felt that the economic
threat to Israel is great or very great. Similarly, only a minor change between the two
polls was noted pertaining to feelings of personal safety:: In the first poll 49.5 % felt
fairly or very threatened, as against 53% in the second poll. On the economic level:
34% felt fairly greatly or very greatly threatened in the first poll, against 37% in the
second.
Nor were any differences between the two polls found among Israeli Arab
respondents, albeit their stands on the security issue were, as anticipated, decidedly
different from those of the Jewish respondents. Thus, in both polls, only 38% felt that
Israel's security was significantly endangered. The difference between Arabs and Jews
is smaller on the personal safety issue, presumably due to their almost equal exposure,
for instance, in the use of public transport. In the first poll, 43% of Arab respondents
feared for their personal safety, compared with 45% in the second poll. These
findings also indicate that where both security and the economy are concerned, the
general public's sense of danger, nationally speaking, is greater than at the individual
level.
The feeling that the economic situation is extremely serious is also reflected in the
government's order of priorities. In the first poll, 50% of Jewish respondents believed
that the handling of socio-economic matters ought to top the government's scale of
priorities, while only 21% felt that the advancement of negotiations with the
Palestinians should be the government's foremost priority. 28% considered both these
issues equally important. Despite the serious economic situation of the Arab sector,
Arab respondents felt differently: 50% considered the negotiations to be the most
important factor, against 25% who felt the government should first deal with socioeconomic affairs. (23% perceived both issues as equally important). While we have
shown that no tangible change existed in assessing the severity of the economic and
security situations in the wake of the recent attacks, the second poll showed a visible
shrinkage of the gap between how the Jewish public feels the government should
handle socio-economic affairs as against security issues: 37% accorded priority to
socio-economic problems, against 35% who thought security problems came first.
Arab respondents showed a stronger preference for the government's focusing on
political negotiations (60%) against 16% who preferred it to deal with socio-economic
affairs.
Preferences regarding issues on which the government should focus should not be
interpreted as a failure by the public to perceive a link between the two domains. This
is borne out by the findings of the first poll, indicating that the public believes that the
poor state of Israel's economy has mainly been caused by the collapse of the peace
process and the outbreak of the intifadah: Some 62% of Jews as well as Arabs
perceive the collapse of the political process and the outbreak of the intifadah as
having the worst possible impact on the Israeli economy.
Despite the sense of danger, the public still has a high opinion of the national level of
inner strength. In effect, 70% of Jewish respondents estimated even in the second poll
that Israeli society has greater inner strength than the Palestinians, and will therefore
be able to remain steadfast, even if the violence continues at length. This figure is
compared against only 17% of Jews who believe that Palestinian society is stronger
(the remainder have no clear opinion). It is interesting to note that the Arab
respondents this time also felt that Israeli society is stronger (44%, against 22% who
consider the Palestinians stronger). There has been no change among Jewish
respondents since this question was asked in August 2001. Among Arab respondents,
however, the contrary is true: at that time only 21% believed that Israeli society could
hold out longer in an ongoing confrontation, while 33% estimated that the Palestinian
society would be more steadfast under the ongoing violence.
The findings of the latest polls indicate that, a sense of considerable threat
notwithstanding, the majority of the public is not beset by crippling anxiety, and is
therefore not inclined towards a mass reaction to the present difficult existential
conditions by opting to emigrate. As in the past, the decisive majority of the Jewish
public -- some 83% -- again states that it has no intention of leaving the country
because of the intifadah, even if it could. The remainder are divided into 7% who
would like to emigrate in any event, and 8% who are prepared to leave only because
of the intifadah.
In the second poll, we asked: "What, in your opinion, could change the present
situation?" 49 % of Jewish respondents felt that more powerful military measures than
used so far could be one way of extricating ourselves from the present situation, while
14% preferred a joint Israeli-Palestinian initiative, and 12% opted for international
intervention (18% felt there was no solution whatsoever). Among Arab respondents,
only about 1% believed that the use of military force would pull the cart out of the
mire; 45% preferred a joint Israel/Palestinian political initiative, and 38% wanted
international intervention (16% felt there was no solution). It should be noted that -compared with our previous poll exploring the percentage of Jewish respondents in
favor of using military force -- their number has increased, while the number of
respondents who favor a political initiative has dropped. The Jewish Public's
preference for the military option is evidently related to its sweeping evaluation, that
Arafat will once again fail to use all possible measures at his disposal to eradicate
terror (87%), against 37% of Arab respondents, who believe he will. That said, the
public realizes that, at the end of the day, it will be impossible to conclude the conflict
without political negotiations. This is indicated by 38% who favor a total cessation of
negotiations with the Palestinians against 43% believe negotiations should be
postponed until the Palestinians stop the use of violence. Only 16% favor renewing
the negotiations forthwith, even if the Palestinian violence does not stop.
In most of the questions, it should be noted, no significant differences were found
among Jewish respondents, based on their votes for prime minister or on party votes.
In other words, the political camps are losing their significance where security and
economic situation appraisals are concerned, including the lack of trust in Arafat.
However, certain differences based on "camps" were found in the two questions on
what policy should be employed, given the present situation. Here the Sharon voters
and rightist parties showed a distinct preference for the use of force and the desire to
cease negotiations -- against Barak voters and the leftist camps, who preferred
negotiations or international intervention rather than an increased use of military
force, and favored suspending the negotiations or renewing them forthwith or as soon
as the Palestinians stop the violence. (see chart)
No changes in the Peace Index, compared with the figures of the previous month,
were found in the first poll. The general Peace Index for the overall population was
53.3 points (50.1 in the Jewish sample); the Oslo Index was 34.7 (31.9 in the Jewish
sample), and the Syria Index was 37.4 (34.3 in the Jewish sample.)
The peace index is an ongoing project initiated by the Tami Steinmetz Institute for Peace at Tel
Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Ya'ar and Dr. Tamar Hermann. The telephone
interviews were conducted by the B.I. Cohen Institute of Public Opinion Research at Tel Aviv
University.
The usual monthly poll was carried out on 27-28 November 2001 and the second (special) poll
was held on 3-4 December 2001. Both polls comprised 587 respondents representing the adult
Jewish population of this country (including the West Bank and Gaza Strip and the kibbutzim),
and the adult Arab population. Margin of error in a sample of this size is estimated at 4.5%.
http://www.tau.ac.il/peace
E-mail: steinmet@post.tau.ac.il
PERMANENT QUESTIONS ON THE GENERAL PEACE INDEX
1.
Do you believe or not believe that in the coming years there will be peace between Israel and
the Arabs? (to the Arabs: between Israel and the Arab States)
1. Certain there will be peace
2. Think there will be peace
3. In the middle
4. Think there will not be peace
5. Certain there will not be peace
6. Don’t know/no opinion
2.
Jews
8.4
45.8
1.1
0..2
3..3
0.1
Jews +Arabs
5.6
41.1
1.4
01.5
31.5
0.1
In general, do you consider yourself a supporter or opponent of the peace process between
Israel and the Arabs? (to the Arabs: between Israel and the Arab States)
1. Greatly opposed
2. Somewhat opposed
3. In the middle
4. Somewhat supportive
5. Greatly supportive
6. Don’t know/no opinion
Jews
44.0
6.0
42.3
33.3
34..
4.0
Jews +Arabs
42.4
8..
..8
30.8
80.0
4.2
PERMANENT QUESTIONS ON THE OSLO INDEX
1.
What is your opinion on the agreement that was signed in Oslo between Israel and the
PLO (Agreement of Principles)?
1. Heavily in favor
2. Somewhat in favor
3. In the middle
4. Somewhat opposed
5. Heavily opposed
6. Don’t know/no opinion
2.
Jews
42.5
48.6
04.1
43.0
0..0
42.4
Jews +Arabs
44.5
41.5
02.4
40.6
05.4
44.8
Do you believe or not believe that the Oslo Agreement between Israel and the PLO will bring
about peace between Israel and the Palestinians in the coming years?
1. Greatly believe
2. Somewhat believe
3. In the middle
3. Somewhat don’t believe
4. Certainly don’t believe
5. Don’t know/no opinion
Jews
3.4
42.5
40.2
02.6
81.2
5.4
PERMANENT QUESTIONS ON THE SYRIAN INDEX
Jews +Arabs
8.4
40.4
44..
4..5
88.2
1.1
1.
Do you believe or not believe that in the coming years there will be peace
between Israel and Syria?
Jews
1. Certain there will be peace
2. Think there will be peace
3. In the middle
4. Think there will not be peace
5. Certain there will not be peace
6. Don’t know/no opinion
2.
2.5
4..1
48.1
32.8
06.6
1.0
Jews +Arabs
8.8
04.3
43.5
04.4
06.8
5.6
What is your position regarding support for a full peace treaty between Israel
and Syria in exchange for withdrawal from the Golan Heights?
1. Greatly in favor
2. Somewhat in favor
3. In the middle
4. Somewhat opposed
5. Greatly opposed
6. Don’t know/no opinion
Jews
44.5
45.3
44.8
44.0
86.2
8.6
Jews +Arabs
4..4
46.1
42.5
42.8
82.4
8.4