SPECIFIC SECTOR USER FEEDBACK ON GHACOF 38 AND
RECOMMENDATIONS ON HOW TO USE GHACOF39 CLIMATE OUTLOOK
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES MADE DURING COF39
1. Background
The objective of this exercise was to give chance to the sectors to review previous COF (COF38)
and its impacts, interpret COF 39 outlook and deliberate on how different sectors will utilize
COF39 for improved performance at sector level. The sectors that were present during COF39
include: Agriculture and Food Security, Livestock, Water, Media and DRM. Below are sector specific recommendations presented during COF39 that took place from 26-28 February 2015 in
Nairobi, Kenya. Also discussed by the Agriculture team were the barriers to climate information
access and utilization and recommendations on how to overcome the identified barriers.
2. Highlights from Agriculture and Food Security Sector
A review of the Performance of GHACOF38 and Implications for COF39 in the Agriculture
Sector of GHA Countries
Summary of how participant member states used COF38 Outlook
Country
How member states used COF38 Outlook
 Farmers were advised to store water using innovative technology
Burundi
Kenya
Uganda
Ethiopia
South
Sudan
 Livestock farmers were advised to harvest fodder and store for the future during the dry
season
 Farmers were encouraged to practice soil erosion strategies
 In case there was a normal to below normal rainfall scenario, farmers were advised to use
drought tolerant seeds
 December – a short dry season but the crop was in grain filling so there was no damage
 Downscaling according to the counties and further to the ecological zones
 Regular meetings to update the communities on new developments in the seasonal forecast
as the season unfolded
 PSP was held bringing together with different stakeholders who combined knowledge to
develop consensus forecast to help them in the development of sector specific advisories.
 Communication through various channels such as radios, barazas etc. was done.
 Translation into local languages
 Transmitted to local vernacular stations for transmission
 Development of Sector specific advisories on what to plant, when to plant, water
requirements etc.
 Used to inform the planting season resulting in a bumper harvest
 Used to inform the harvesting season timing
 Used in the IPC workshop for food security projections
 Used by development partners in the prepositioning food for relief
Summary of the impact of COF38 Outlook in participants’ member states
Country
Impact of COF38 Outlook in participants’ member states
 Crop production was good in many parts of the country
Burundi
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Kenya
Uganda
Ethiopia
South
Sudan
 For those farmers whose area was forecasted as below normal and heeded to the advisories
given, they saved money as they did not experience any loses
 For those areas with forecast in the above normal category, the farmers who followed the
advisories received bumper harvest
 In some sections of lower Eastern, there was massive crop failure due to a failed session
 In some areas due to failure of the season, the communities lacked trust and confidence in the
forecasts (seasonal updates)
 Maize that was planted late in the season was a failure
 Beans failed because of too much rainfall in end of November when it was supposed to be
harvested.
 There was severe flooding in Kasese and students had to be airlifted to sit their exams
 Heavy rainfall early in the season resulted in 20% destruction of farming infrastructure
 Crop losses due to too much rainfall during harvest time
 Floods due to too much rainfall resulting in destruction of farming infrastructure
 Reported flood impacts in flood prone areas of Southern Sudan
 Early predisposition of development partners because of timely seasonal forecasts
Summary of how participants’ member states plan on using COF39 Outlook
Country
Planned use of COF39 Outlook
 Organize multi stakeholder national meeting on 5th March to release the product to media
Burundi
Kenya
Uganda
Ethiopia
 Develop advisories based on the forecasts released
 Release of adaptation strategies based on the forecast realized
 Western and Central Regions are forecasted to receive normal to above normal forecast,
therefore, they will advise farmers to use innovative approaches to store water and hay for
future use, employ soil conservation strategies etc.
 Northern and Eastern regions are forecasted to receive normal to below normal rains therefore
they will advise farmers to use drought tolerant seeds as well as plant short duration crops
 The director and CDMS will be in a national meeting to release the downscaled National
Outlook Forum
 CDMS are already using data from their local stations to build up on the upcoming
downscaling of forecasts
 Organize a multi-stakeholder forum to disseminate the forecast and advisories to the general
public in the various counties
 Dissemination of the advisories through radios, barazas etc.
 Monitoring and evaluation of the season
 Unpack the downscaled forecasts and see the implications of the forecast on the various
sectors such as Agriculture, Water etc.
 Develop Sector specific advisories
 Dissemination of the forecast and advisories through radios, newspapers etc. to the general
public
 Disseminate the forecast and advisories to the DRR platforms, food security platforms etc.
 Trainings by GIZ on the water requirements by plants based on this forecast
 Monitoring of the performance of the seasonal forecast every 10 days using remote sensing
 Assessment of the performance of the seasonal forecast at the end of the season
 Uganda met own plant water requirements based on future forecasts in the coming seasons
 Release the forecast to the public based on ecological zones
 Disseminate the forecast in the local languages through radios and other communication
channels
 Plans to update the seasonal forecasts and disseminate to farmers through the Ministry of
Agriculture
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 Help farmers to prepare for the season
South
Sudan
 Disseminate to the food security program
 Food security analysis will be done in April
 Disseminate the forecast to the Ministry of Agriculture and to other departments and
development partners
 Creation of working groups to develop advisories
Barriers to Climate Information Access among Member States
Country
Barriers to Climate Information Access among Member States
 Late delivery of seasonal forecasts
Kenya
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Burundi
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Uganda
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South
Sudan
Ethiopia
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Religious perception/culture – users believe that KMD has not advanced technologically
Literacy levels
Difficulty in interpretation of uncertainty and probabilities associated with forecasts.
Lead time in terms of seasonal forecasts. Need to release of MAM forecast in January
Logistical challenges e.g. Transport to assist the technical personnel
Language barrier. Need to use local terms for Meteorology
Funding of County Climate Outlook forums to come up with sector specific advisories with the
use of the various technical persons
Users do not understand their own needs
Poor network of meteorological stations. Less data and therefore low accuracy levels
Failure to use the seasonal updates
Ignorance by farmers on the changing climate. The same plants that used to be planted long
ago are still planted in the same zones yet they no longer thrive well
Late delivery of climate information
Policy constraint – intervention strategies hard to implement
Few people able to use the information
Failure of the previous season
Trust and confidence in the use of the seasonal forecast
Late delivery of seasonal forecasts
Other factors beyond the capacity of the farmers, what does the farmer do when there is no
rain in the next two months and the crop is just 1 meter tall
Difficult to mobilize the community to disseminate the forecast
Lack of resources to organize a community meeting. It is expensive
Lack of coordination mechanism to downscale the regional outlook to the national level
Difficulty in interpreting the meteorological terms such as normal
How to use the seasonal forecast to inform their decisions
Difference in ecological zones. Northern has one season and south has two long seasons
Awareness level among farmers on the importance of climate information
Less of accuracy of the seasonal forecasts
Barriers to effective communication/Dissemination of CI
Country
Barriers to effective communication/Dissemination of CI
 Technological barriers
Kenya
 Media sources of climate information products from the internet misleading the general
public
 Failure by the KMS to liaise with the media on the seasonal forecast updates
 Language barrier
 Low literacy levels among the communities
 Interpretation of uncertainty in the forecasts
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Burundi
Uganda
South
Sudan
Ethiopia
Technical meteorological terms such as above normal etc.
Logistical problems such as transportation for County Directors
The communities do not have knowledge of a changing climate
Delay in seasonal forecasts therefore the met personnel are irrelevant to the farming
communities;
 Stale information on the Kenya Meteorological Department website
 Difficult for the users to understand what the technical terms used
 Lack of accuracy in the seasonal forecast – it does not happen
 Difficult to communicate distribution in space and time
 Relating the seasonal forecast to what it means in the agricultural terms
 Presence of extension services
Same as the other Eastern African Countries
Same as the other Eastern African Countries
Same as the other Eastern African Countries
Barriers to optimal utilization of CI
Country
Barriers to optimal utilization of CI
 Delay in the issuance of the seasonal forecasts
Kenya
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Burundi
Uganda
South
Sudan
Ethiopia
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Perception/culture among the intended users
Low literacy levels
Difficulty in understanding the uncertainty in the forecasts
Difficulty in understanding the technical meteorological terms such as above normal etc.
Language barrier. Forecasts produced in English.
Failure to update the seasonal forecasts with other short range forecasts
Logistical challenges for the CDMS, such as insufficient personnel, transport challenges,
funding constraints
Users do not know what they want
Poor network of meteorological station making downscaling a challenge
Late delivery of climate information
Cultural hindrances – believe that planting time culturally determined
Accuracy of the previous forecast affecting the use of the next forecasts
Same as the other Eastern African Countries
 Same as the other Eastern African Countries
 Same as the other Eastern African Countries
Proposed strategies on how to break the above barriers
Country
Proposed strategies on how to break the above barriers
 Appreciating the different vulnerabilities
Kenya
 Meteorologists to accompany the technical personnel during dissemination
 Sensitization of the technical personnel on key climatological terms and meteorological terms
 Issue a forecast every three months and still follow the farming calendar. Capture the
different phases of farming
 Need to institutionalize PSP
 Empower the users to know their needs
 Sensitize the users on the seasonal forecasts updates
 Policy on user-producer interphase
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Burundi
Uganda
South
Sudan
Ethiopia
 Encourage a network of volunteer observers
 Rolling out of more RANET stations
 Development of a communication plan/strategy
 Training of intermediaries
 Sensitization meetings in CIS use
 Deliver CI before the cropping season maybe January or early enough
 Update the forecast during the cropping seasons
 Diversify communication channels
 Enhance the Agro-meteorology department
 Implement Climate Change adaptation and Early Warning strategies
 Implement a National Communication strategy for Climate Information Services
 Same as the other Eastern Countries
 Use of mass media for dissemination
 Use of local languages to disseminate the seasonal forecasts
 Rolling out of early warning institutions to the lower levels to enable the use of seasonal
forecasts
 Increase the number of extension staff involved in disseminating the forecast
 Capacity building and issuing of job descriptions for the extension officers
 Capacity building of farmers with development agents
 Diversify communication channels
2. Water Resources Sector Recommendations
The Normal to below Normal forecast for Kenya in COF39 calls for reservoir management to
balance power generation. This means going into conservation mode for HEP (Figure 1). Attempts
should be made to supply HEP only for peak demand for most generation sites. Stakeholders in
water supply are advised to plan accordingly and advocate for as much rain water harvesting as
possible coupled with soil and water conservation.
In Tanzania, rains may not be much, therefore, energy generation planning is going to be crucial.
Alternative sources of power are going to be sought to bridge the gap. More gas will be used and
less HEP produced to conserve water.
Plans are to be made for alternative water supply sources like ground water, encourage rain
water harvesting as well as soil and water conservation.
Uganda and Burundi reported that they would advise stakeholders in water supply and HEP on
anticipated conditions of rains so that they can plan accordingly. Stakeholders in flood prone
areas would be informed to watch out for floods and mudslides especially in the mountainous
and degraded catchments.
Finally the countries will advocate for all stakeholders to carryout measures to conserve and
sustainably manage the catchment areas to mitigate disasters like floods and landslides.
This is not a major season in Ethiopia (Figure 1) except on the western side of the country and so
the forecast will be useful to aid them plan based on the quantities of water available.
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Figure 1: Hydrological MAM Outlook Based on COF39
3. Disaster Risk Management Sector Recommendations
Member states deliberated and agreed on several mitigating measures applicable across the
board. Population in flood prone areas will be sensitized on the need for them to move or be
evacuated to higher ground areas. Drainage systems in urban areas will be opened up to prevent
malaria and to lessen the impacts of floods. Prepositioning of Relief Assistance need to be done
near areas that are likely to be affected by the expected impacts. Existing contingency plans in
areas likely to be impacted in all states will be reviewed. Early warning systems will therefore
need to be strengthened. This therefore calls for conducting of vulnerability assessment for all
states and especially in Sudan.
Putting in place water harvesting programmes is highly recommended. This will be achieved
through building of strategic reserves. The resilience of pastoral communities will also be built.
There is need for adequate stock of medicine, fodder for animals and water for both animal and
human consumption. Training of 2000 climate disseminators is needed to disseminate what all
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communities can do to mitigate the impacts of climate risks. Besides the trained climate
disseminators, other intermediaries will also be used.
There is need to work with the NDMA, CBOs, NGOs and other development partners to
implement contingency plan. Mapping will be done on critical areas so as to establish a common
humanitarian action plan with other actors. Finally, dissemination the Climate Outlook will be
done with the country foreseen impacts and recommended mitigation advisories.
4. Livestock Sector Recommendations
After deliberations, the group agreed on the following recommendations as the way forward:
It was suggested that in future COFs, it would be preferable for ICPAC to provide maps for
observed precipitation at country level for evaluation of season performance and for
baseline of the current forecast
South Sudan needs to improve relationships and work closely with NMHS and livestock
sectors
There is a need to establish a forum/working group to discuss implications of the forecasts
on the livestock sector
5. Media Recommendations
The good progress made in the past will be enhanced to ensure the outlook forecasts are widely
covered and disseminated.
The media representatives agreed that seasonal forecast is a big story if blended well. They
committed themselves to give outlook forecast stories a human angle by following the reported
stories to areas where the impacts are prone.
They will focus on impacts and go to the rural communities on the ground to interview
communities on how they are coping with the impacts of seasonal rains.
To increase the interest of users to climate information and improve dissemination, the media
representatives agreed to use different methods of disseminating the information.
Some of the methods proposed included having drama programmes, folk songs, etc. Experienced
journalists promised to share their experiences with the view to encourage and mentor young
ones to report climate issues in a manner that is more interesting, which can be appreciated by
viewers, listeners and readers.
The issue of literacy levels of climate information users was discussed and there was mixed
feelings. It was reported that most users in the region are people with basic education while
others are professionals who have retired from their jobs to practice farming back in the rural
areas.
The only thing required is to ensure information is given in simple clear language.
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A model for downscaling climate services for community based adaptation to climate
variability and change: Presentation delivered by a representative of Kenya Meteorological
Department.
Introduction
This work was part of a “Climate Information Services” project for 4 areas in Kenya implemented
by ICPAC in partnership with the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and other Kenyan
institutions. The project was supported by Rockefeller Foundation. It addressed the missing or
weak link between climate information products and their utilization by the end user community
and evaluated the applicability of community based climate services in improving livelihoods of
vulnerable communities.
Objectives
The objectives of the project were to (i) Improve agricultural productivity by utilization of
community climate services in planning, decision-making and management of farming operations
and (ii) Contribute to community level climate risk reduction in agriculture and food security
sector through development and dissemination of community demand-driven climate
information for application in agricultural planning, decision-making and management.
Downscaled forecasts
Forecasts were downscaled for three sites in western Kenya and one in Maasai land. The sites
were Reru (semi-arid land dominated by subsistence agriculture), Nganyi (which had been
running indigenous based climate forecasts for generations), Nyahera (peri-urban community
with high agro-business potential) and Oloitokitok in Maasai land (dominated by livestock
livelihoods system). The forecasts can be traced from WMO GPCs by ICPAC and NMHSs at
GHACOF to national and finally to the project sites. These were based on nearby synoptic stations
and analogue years from which onset, cessation and rainfall distribution were derived.
Value addition
The value addition aspect of this project entailed deriving tailored products and information
within a range of social, economic and environmental contexts, in this case, crop and livestock
farming. Furthermore, small amounts of inputs were provided by agriculture, livestock, water
and irrigation experts etc; local NGOs/CBOs, Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI) and
Agro-input suppliers for demonstration purposes.
Dissemination
The dissemination of the information took place mainly through four channels, i.e. community
meetings (barazas), church, demonstrations and short messaging service (SMS). Extension
officers in charge of a specific community were tasked with issuing of the consensus advisory at
the barazas while SMSs complemented the seasonal advisories through which specific updates
on weather and agro-meteorology were issued to farmers as the season progressed, or as
needed.
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Community benefits from Use of Climate Services
On the benefits, average yield increased by 3-4 times (sorghum & Maize) compared to baselines
ensuring food security and income from the sale of surplus produce. Food and nutrient
diversification was achieved through growing various crops (maize, sorghum, beans, green
grams, groundnuts, orange-fleshed sweet potatoes and sweet cassava) as informed by the
forecasts.
Other benefits were realized through the input of other investors like beer companies who would
contract sorghum farmers to produce beer-type sorghum. Farmers also witnessed reduced
destruction of crops by pests and diseases as they learnt new skills of managing both during
scenario planning barazas. These included management of Necrotic disease and Striga weed
which affect maize. In addition, farmers learnt proper land management, including control of soil
erosion and agro-forestry.
Livestock community benefits included better managed pasture and water resources – livestock
condition would remain high longer than before, even during and after long dry spells. Replanting
of degraded pasture areas, restocking and sale of grass seeds benefited the community.
Challenges
The main challenges were extreme and severe weather in form of hailstorms and extended wet
and/or dry spells. Posing additional challenges were outbreaks of pests and diseases such as
fungal diseases, MLND and Striga.
Conclusion and recommendations
The conclusion is that downscaled weather and climate information can effectively contribute
towards rural communities adapt and cope with climate variability and ensure food security. It is
recommended to consider scaling up similar initiatives (climate-smart livelihood support) across
the country and the region.
A summary publication of this project can also be obtained from ICPAC website following the
link below:
http://icpac.net/applications/applications/Climate_Information_Package_ICPAC_Case_Study.p
df
For further information, please contact, The Director, ICPAC
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