Process Paper – Question Decomposition and Analysis Example
Brian Manning – January, 2012
Task:
To decompose and model the following question: Will Lucas Papademos resign, lose reelection/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Greece before 1 March 2012?
Problem:
Papademos is an unelected technocrat. The Prime Minister is appointed to act as the president of
the majority party. When the previous PM stepped down, Papademos was asked to step in as an
independent coalition leader due to his extensive economic experience. However, under current
law, he is not eligible to run for the office of PM, there is no popular election for the position of
PM, and if he's affiliated with a specific a party, he has no chance to be prime minister after the
elections.
There are no indicators of health issues available in our standard information sources, other than
his age (mid-sixties). Similarly, there is no sign that he is considering resigning/vacating of his
own will, and he's got more public support than any other party leader. The lesser parties are
unlikely to seek his removal, as he is the most viable non-partisan option available, and the
primary party, which holds 152/300 parliament seats, would simply take charge with their own
nominee. Furthermore, it was the majority party leader who stepped down to make room for him
as Prime Minister. His expertise is highly respected in the region--as one source noted he is "one
of the most knowledgeable men in Europe on matters of macroeconomics". In short, there is
little incentive for removing him, at least for the moment. Lacking any other serious pressure for
resignation and with no serious health issues known, these factors are minimal at best. Up to 2%
would be within reasonable estimates.
Papademos insists that the coalition needs three more months after the elections to resolve the
economic crisis, which is allowed under the constitution. Ultimately, the resolution of this
question will come down to whether or not the elections are delayed.
For these reasons, several of the original template factors, such as public popularity, polling
numbers, and party dominance cannot be applied in this situation. Therefore, the question did
not fit the existing Leadership Removal template, as the decomposition team discovered during
the dissection and mind-mapping process. What seemed like a simple template application
turned into a dramatically different situation with the realization that the election would remove
him from power, rather than determine the outcome of the election.
Solution:
We drastically altered the template to make it workable by allowing for the possibility of his
adoption into the majority party with a new Decomposition Factor question.
We inverted the most probable cause number, as the question is phrased in a negative fashion.
Thus, an 83% likelihood of the elections being pushed back becomes a 17% chance of
Papademos being removed from power by the date in question.”