POLS 306 Public Policy Spring 14 Foreign and Defense Policy Part 2 Chapter 15 Tom Dye “We cannot wait for the smoking gun to become a mushroom cloud.” Then National Security Advisor, later Secretary of State, Dr. Condoleezza Rice 1) Deterrence Criminal Justice Known punishments will prevent certain actions by fear of consequences Defense Maintains peace through fear of retaliation. 1) Credible Threat Ability to Survive 1st strike; willingness to launch 2nd strike 2) Rational Enemy Swift, Sure, Severe – Breccaria Mutually Assured Destruction Keeps nations from launching 1st strike 2) Arms Control SALT I (1972) and II (1979)– Kissinger and Nixon START I (1991) and II – Reagan then Bush (II never really happens) Moscow Treaty (2002) GW Bush and Putin RE-Start – Obama and Putin, oh sorry, Medvedev NewSTART – Effective Feb 2011 Nuclear arsenals reduced more than 80% from Cold War Levels Star Wars, SDI and Smart Bombs 3) Pre-emption A first strike in response to an imminent and extreme threat. Why do we shift from deterrence to pre-emption? 4) The Bush Doctrine “We will make no distinction between the terrorists who committed these acts and those who harbor them.” 5) Terrorism Deterrence requires an ability to survive a finite first strike and launch a second. Terrorism depends on a series of random, society crippling attacks. Deterrence requires a rational, identifiable, unified enemy. Rogue states and terrorist groups are none of the above. 6) Recent US Military History Gulf War 1: Iraq invades Kuwait “Desert Storm” August 1990 – 500,000 troops Cap Weinberger has built up substantial force during Reagan era. One hundred hours of ground fighting Gulf War 2: 9/11/01 attacks “Enduring Freedom” October 2001- present (12.5 years) Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan International coalition “Iraqi Freedom” March 19, 2003 - December 2011 Saddam Hussein in Iraq Multi-national coalition – 250, 000 troops Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld has built a “lean” military with a light footprint; air and ground attacks began simultaneously. “What Went Wrong in Iraq?” Preemptive Strike on terrorism Limited troops Peacekeeper role “Nation Building” role No exit strategy Sectarian Violence/Civil strife Loss of backbone/will/public support 7) Force Levels Weinberger doctrine –Shafrtiz (page 316) Powell Doctrine - Compare and Contrast Similar rhetoric; disparate results? 8) Where’s the next hotspot? (Country reports)