PREVENTION OF HARMFUL
ALGAL BLOOMS VIA
PREDICTIONS OF FERTILIZER
RUNOFF
MA432 - 2014
ASSUMPTIONS
 Suppose there is a farm near a slow -moving body of
water.
 The fertilizer runoff from the farm enters the slow moving body of water and becomes thoroughly mixed.
 The concentration of fertilizer in the water influences the
occurrence of harmful algal blooms.
 Harmful algal blooms produce toxins which can cause
death of organisms within the water in addition to death
of organisms that drink from the water.
MODEL DIAGRAM
 Compartment Model
ASSUMPTIONS
 All water is uniformly distributed and there is thorough
mixing of fertilizer runoff with the body of water.
 The volume of the body of water is constant. Thus, the
inflows are equal to the outflow.
 The rate of fertilizer runoff is constant over time.
 Sunlight and temperature will be held constant.
PROBLEM QUESTIONS
 What concentration of fertilizer will be sufficient
to create harmful algal blooms?
 How much fertilizer/what type of fertilizer would
be safe so as to prevent the growth of harmful
algal blooms?
 How sensitive are the algal blooms to the
nutrient levels (phosphorus, nitrogen)?
 How do the rates of evaporation and precipitation
affect the concentration of nutrients in the
water?
DISCUSSION OF MODEL
 We are concerned with the concentration of nutrients at
which a harmful amount of algal growth will occur. We
are not concerned with the growth rate of the algae.
 In order to determine which nutrients play the largest
role in harmful algal bloom growth, we will use sensitivity
analysis juxtaposed with background research.
 The model can be modified to describe activity in
different environments by varying the rates of runoff and
of water inflow/outflow.
MISSING
 Introduction to the problem
 What type of equations will be used
 Continuous / Discrete
 If Continuous ODE’s or PDE’s or algebraic model
 What model analysis do you propose to use
 Will you have any data to compare your model with?