Pakistan’s Geopolitical
Environment
UMT Conference, Lahore,
March 29, 2011
Rasul Bakhsh Rais
Professor, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, LUMS, Lahore
Regional Geopolitical
Structure
 China as an emerging global power
 Indian ambitions, power and economic growth
 American and Western presence in Afghanistan
 Cycles of war in Afghanistan and impact on the
region and Pakistan
 The Arab spring, peoples vs. the elites
International Power
Structure
 From bipolarity to American dominance
 The end of the cold war and ‘end of history’
 The new liberal order, the Washington Consensus
 New Western interventionism—Afghanistan, Iraq,
and Libya
 Hegemonic regime, order, security and stability
India as an emerging
Power
 Economic growth and military might
 Strategic partnership with the United States
 Quest for regional hegemony
 Pakistan’s security dilemma
 Pakistan’s India challenge growing more complex
The New American
Strategy 2009
 The deployment of 30,000 additional US troops, backed
by expected 10,000 from Nato states, raise foreign troops
to 140,000.
 An emphasis on securing cities and trunk-roads
 Increased effort to train the Afghan army and police, and
expand their numbers
 More money in civil development assistance
 Closer working relationship with Pakistan
 Withdrawal within two years, beginning 2011
The Odds against Success
 The time factor, on whose side the time is?
 Will the Americans stay for a long war?
 Will the Afghan state be able to stand on its feet?
 Can the Afghan hearts and minds be won?
 Is insurgency changing into insurrection?
Pakistan’s Strategic
Concern
 Long war would keep Pakistan on the boil
 Cut and run will encourage Taliban and extremists
 A non-neutral Afghanistan will remain a source of
trouble for Pakistan
 Political approach must move some notches up on
the rank order of things
Final Thoughts
 The war cannot be won by military means alone
 The Taliban and the foreign powers may reach a
grand compromise—not unthinkable
 Neutralizing Afghanistan’s geopolitics
 Rethinking Relationship with India
 The Domestic challenges—terrorism, political
violence and democratic stabilit