Anthropocene(1)
Evidence of the Anthropocene:
– Large-scale agriculture: transforming ecosystems,
synthetic fertilizers changing biogeochemical cycles
– Use of fossil fuels and transportation: changing the
carbon cycle in both the atmosphere and the ocean
– Overfishing and harvesting wildlife: biodiversity loss
– Manufacturing and industrial pollution: waste in landfills,
indecomposable, habitat loss
CHANS
- Coupled human and natural systems
are systems in which humans and
natural components interact
- The human and natural domains are
no longer viewed as separate, but
rather, as connected and embedded
entities in webs of interactions
- Both the scope and intensity of interactions have increased
dramatically
- Couplings between human and natural systems vary across
space, time, and organizational units
Features of CHANS:
Reciprocal Effects and Feedback Loops
Examples:
- Climate change
- Habitat alteration by human activities
- The spread of invasive species
- Natural disasters
- Genetically modified organisms
Regime Shifts and Tipping Points
Emergent Properties
Examples:
- Regulation on social behaviors in a population
Emerging infectious diseases (e.g. Covid-19)
- Wildlife adapted to urban habitats
Legacy Effects and Time Lags
Legacy Effects: Impacts of current CHANS interactions on future conditions
Example: the effects of agriculture on the age, size, and species structure of forests
Time Lags: The delayed consequences of certain CHANS interactions:
Example: Greenhouse gases and the depletion of the ozone layer, regulation on CO2 emissions
Resilience and Vulnerability
Higher quality of life, but we are in debt.
Human Population(2)
Growth rate of the world is equal to: (Birth rate - Death rate) = natural increase
Growth rate of a country is equal to: (Birth rate - Death rate) + (Immigration rate - Emigration
rate) = natural increase + social movement
99% of the next 1 billion people will live in developing nations
Fertility rate: Children per woman
Current FR: 2.1
2021 FR: 2.32
Developed countries FR: 1.52
Underdeveloped countries FR: 2.72
Factors Related to Fertility Rate
Infant/Child Morality(positive correlation)
Workforce in primary/agricultural activities(positive correlation)
Female education(negative correlation)
Personal income(negative correlation)
Access to birth control & family planning(negative correlation)
Historically there has been a lot of worry, because overpopulation will deplete resources and
degrade the environment.
The other perspective is that a booming population leads to innovation, which can mitigate the
effects of a booming population.
The amount of people the earth can support is dependant on the population, quality of
life(affluent), and technology.
Consumption and Waste(3)
Ecological footprint is the amount of land area, including marine space, required to produce
what we consume and assimilate waste.
Earth overshoot day is getting earlier and earlier each year.
PLANNED OBSOLESCENCE: SELLERS PLANNING OBSOLESCENCE
PERCEIVED OBSOLESCENCE: CONSUMERS IRRATIONALLY BELIEVING THEY NEED A
NEW PRODUCT
Waste generation, per capita, is increasing. Above are some of the contributors.
Reduce Reuse Recycle Rethink
Garbage in Seattle is shipped to Oregon and processed there in the landfill. Super
environmentally unfriendly.
Compost is closer and Recycling is friendly.
Rates of compost/recycle are increasing.
Recycling is a specific business.
Recycling, every time you recycle quality is the same. (Aluminum)
Downcycling, each time the quality gets worse. (Plastic)
Environmental History(4)
Four aspects of race relations that had considerable impact on the transformation of the
environment are defined here: The appropriation of Native American land and resources; the
enslavement of blacks; the seizure of Latino territories; and the containment of Asians.
The US is built on stolen labor, land, racism, sexism, and classism. All this favors elite white
males.
Colonialism:
● Cultural and Physical Genocide, disease, war. Economic displacement.
● Unequal power relationships that favor elite white males
● Lead to elaborate justification for taking land, such as: Religious superiority, property
rights obtained by working on the land, the wilderness myth/terra nullius (pristine lands,
no one’s land, ripe for taking), and pioneer mentality(we are the first here so it’s ours)
It matters who tells the story
Manifest destiny painting vs reverse “land back” painting
The beginnings of the American environmental movement:
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A response to manifest destiny and industry running roughshod over national treasures.
A sense that the land is not as unlimited as we thought.
Wilderness is to be celebrated, not defeated; a uniquely American asset, not available in
Europe.
Wilderness may hold intrinsic (as opposed to resource) value
– Transcendentalism: spiritual relationship between humans, nature, and God can be readily
felt. [Emerson, Thoreau, Muir]
– Romanticism: enthusiasm for the strange, remote, solitary, and mysterious.[European
romantic poets]
– Sublime: the supernatural is near at hand, humans are small, sense of fear, awe, wonder
[American landscape painters]
– Primitivism: Simple living is celebrated [Muir, Thoreau]
Wilderness as a kind of Eden, a sacred space
– A space as God made it, before it was desecrated by people
Wilderness:
• Imagined to be sacred
• Imagined to be pristine, devoid of people;
– Either people were never there, or are naturally disappearing.
– People should be rightfully removed if they are there.
– Extension of colonial terra nullius concept
• A place where the American spirit might be retained through a charade of
frontierism/pioneerism—and the cult of manhood. [accessible mainly to white, wealthy, men]
• Convenient in a context of settler colonialism, sexism, and classism seeking to consolidate
land, wealth, and power.
Key players in this movement:
Women and POCs are excluded from historical figures
Competing conservation ideas in the early 20th century
- Preservationism
- Idealize the preservation of wilderness nature in pristine form
- Ambivalent about modern civilization
- Nature, untouched, for nature’s sake and spiritual renewal
- Embodied by National Park Service
- Conservationism
- Nature as a conserved resource for humans to use
- Scientific evidence welcomed
- The term “conservation” is used differently today
- Embodied by US forest service
Where are the women and people of color?
-
These folks all have experiences in nature that are unique to their identities and part of
the American experience. Their stories and contributions are not well known because of
their marginalized identities
If we care about the success of the environmental movement
- It must acknowledge historical injustice
- It must be inclusive of and relevant for all identities
- It must be open to alternative concepts of nature that value nature everywhere, including
the possibility of people living sustainably in nature
- It must not further marginalize already marginalized peoples
- It must recognize that “wilderness is not universally accepted….
Modern Environmental Movement(5)
Aldo Leopold (1887-1948)
- Invented restoration ecology
- Land as an organism, interconnected systems, to be cared for as a community to
which we belong
- “I saw the green fire dying in her eyes”
- “Public wilderness areas are, first of all a means of perpetuating, in sport form, the more
virile and primitive skills in pioneering travel and subsistence”
- “Once destroyed, wilderness can’t be re-created”
Richard Nixon helped pass a lot of environmental legislation due to “tidal wave of public
opinion.”
Earth Day
Environmental Justice(6)
-
Environmental injustice is not distributed randomly
- Disproportionate impacts on poor and people of color (irrespective of income)
Ties social justice movement to environmental movement
Examples
Example 1 - Dakota Access Pipeline, Standing Rock Sioux Tribe
- Treaty rights ignored
- Oil pipelined situated across Indigenous land and water, downstream from white land
- Extends beyond pollution, it is a sacred place
Example 2
- Climate justice, disproportionate impacts of climate change on impoverished
communities
Example 4 - Farmworker Working Conditions
- Exposed to chemicals, harsh weather/climate
- Long hours, poor pay
- Limited access to healthy food, education, health care
Example 5 - Flint, Michigan Water Crisis
- Lead Contamination
- Primarily POC community
Origins of EJ(1)
- Hazel Johnson, “Mother of EJ movement”
- Case 1: Southside Chicago neighborhood
- The “Toxic Doughnut”
- Fumes, asbestos, contaminated drinking water, highest cancer rates, PCB dump
- 1979 people for Community Recovery
- “For so long, environmental activism has been primarily a white, middle-class issue, far
removed from the daily reality of inner-city life. It’s all very well to embrace saving the
rain forests and conserving endangered animal species, but such global initiatives don’t
even begin to impact communities inhabited by POC” - Hazel Johnson
Origins of EJ(3)
- Case 3: Warren County, North Carolina, 1982
- 31,000 gallons of PCB illegally disposed along roads
- “Clean-up” via trucking to landfill in African American community
- Spawns EJ movement and awareness of environmental racism
Origins of EJ(4)
- Case 4 - “father of EJ”
- Scientific study of EJ
- 3 out of 5 African Americans live near toxic waste dumps
- Black Americans suffer higher exposure to air pollution than White Americans
regardless of income
- Environmental racism - “America is still segregated and so is pollution,..race is
the strongest variable in where facilities are located and in 2000 we found the
same thing”
- What are the origins of Environmental Racism?
- “The most vulnerable are the least politically connected. If you keep people of
color o…
Origins of EJ(5)
- First national people of color environmental leadership summit (1991)
- Sponsored by the United Church of Christ’s Commission for Racial Justice
- 17 Principles of Environmental Justice
- Affirms the “sacredness” of nature
- Affirms the rights of all people to equitable and healthy relationship with their
environment
- Affirms equitable access to resources/opportunity without undermining the
sustainability of “mother Earth”
- Affirms the right to access to quality education that emphasizes social and
environmental issues
- Demands the right to self-determination and participation at all levels of
decision-making
Dina Gilio-Whitaker (Colville Tribes), As long as grass Grows
- P 25: EJ… is an outgrowth of “white supremacy, not… an artifact of history…, but
rather… continuous unfolding of practices of race and racism in settler states
-
Starts with colonization: stolen land/labor
- A way to concentrate wealth/power
- Invention of race as a concept
- A way to marginalize non-white communities
- The structure of greed, oppression, racism (including legacy of Jim Crow laws - such as
red-lining) persists
- Red-lining: banks prevent POC from getting housing loans, reduce property
ownership, and force POC into less desirable areas
- White privilege makes it easy for otherwise well-intentioned whites to “go with the flow”
- The existing structures work for people like me. My people are not overburdened
by pollution
- I am less likely to notice problems that affect BIPOC communities or address
them when I do
- And, fundamentally, because I have privilege, someone else has less privilege
Many EJ Statistics still hold today, more than 40 years after Bullard’s first study
- Black americans 75% more likely to lie near hazardous waste facilities (2018, EPA)
- POC more likely to live near sources of pollution such as highways, industrial facilities
and oil and gas refineries (EPA)
- POC have elevated incidence of asthma, lung disease, heart disease, and cancer (EPA)
- POC exposed to >50% more pollution than they generate (Tessum et al. 2018)
- Whites exposed to 17% less pollution than they generate (Tessum et al. 2018)
- POC are 23% of visitors to national parks despite POC making up >40% of population
(NPS)
What is intersectional environmentalism (IE)?
- “An inclusive approach to environmentalism that advocates for the protection of people
and planet)
- “IE argues that social and social and environmental justice are intertwined and that
environmental advocacy that disregards this connection is harmful and incomplete
Why is “environmentalism that ignores IE incomplete?” How does addressing social injustice
also address environmental injustice, or environmental degradation itself?
- P4: the earth shouldn’t be taken for granted, nor should its people, and the drivers of this
exploitation - greed, racism, capitalism, and other systems of oppression - should be
rejected and dismantled
- P5: social injustice and environmental injustice are fueled by the same flame: the under
valuing, commodification, and exploitation of all forms of life and natural resources, from
the smallest blade of grass to those living in poverty and oppressed people worldwide
- P32 intersectional environmentalism argues that the same systems of oppression that
oppress people also oppress and degrade the planet. When a nation, such as one in the
Global North, prioritize extractive industries and profit of the planet, then it will likely also
have interlinked social inequality
Carbon Cycle and Ocean Acidification(7)
The Carbon Cycle (week 3)
- Fast (modern carbon) and slow cycle (fossil carbon)
- How has it changed in the anthropocene?
- Ocean acidification, climate change
Biogeochemical cycles in the anthropocene
- Carbon
- Nitrogen
- Water
Carbon Cycle: sinks and fluxes
Slow vs Fast Carbon Cycle
The slow carbon cycle
- Natural cycles take millions of years: carbon moves between rocks, soil, ocean, the
biosphere, and the atmosphere
- When living organisms are growing, they take in carbon from the atmosphere. When
they die, calcium-containing parts and organic matters get buried and transformed into
fossil fuels
- Driven by chemical reactions through sedimentation, rock formation, weathering, tectonic
activities, and volcanic eruptions
The slow carbon cycle: fossil fuels
- How coal was formed
- Swamp (300 million years ago) - before the dinosaurs, many giant plants died in
swamps
- Water (100 million years ago) - over millions of years, the plants were buried
under water and dirt
- Rocks and dirt - heat and pressure turned the dead plants into coal
- Petroleum and natural gas formation
- Ocean (300-400 million years ago) - tiny sea plants and animals died and were
buried on the ocean floor. Over time, they were covered by the layers of silt and
sand
- Ocean (50-100 million years ago) - Over millions of years, the remains were
buried deeper and deeper. The enormous heat and pressure turned them into oil
and gas
- Sand and silt rock - today, we drill down through layers of sand, silt, and rock to
reach the rock formation that contain oil and gas deposits
The fast carbon cycle
-
Hours to days to hundreds of years
Photosynthesis converts atmospheric co2 to carbohydrates (sugars)
Respiration breaks down sugars to get energy and CO2 is released to atmosphere
Decay and decomposition - accumulate organic matters (compost) and release CO2 to
atmosphere
Fossil fuels vs. biofuels
- Use the concept of “fast” vs “slow” carbon cycles to explain the impacts of fossil fuels
and biofuels on the earth’s carbon cycles
The carbon cycle: review
- Carbon storage sinks
- Atmosphere, hydrosphere (ocean), lithosphere (rocks, fossil fuels), biosphere
(biomass)
- Fast vs. slow carbon cycle
- Photosynthesis, respiration, fire, decomposition
- Rock formation, fossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas), volcanic/tectonic activities
- Modern vs. fossil carbon
- Biomass fuels, biofuels
- Fossil fuels
Climate Change(8)
Drivers of climate change
- Change in incoming solar radiation
- Driven by variations in the earth’s orbit: the 120,000-year “Milankovitch cycles”
- “The next large (change), similar to those that started past Ice Ages, is due to
begin in 30,000 years”
- Change albedo
- Albedo: fraction of solar radiation reflected from earth back into space (high
albedo = high reflection)
- Change in clouds, ice, ocean surface, or vegetation
- Change the thermal radiation from Earth back into space
- The greenhouse effect
- Change in greenhouse gas concentrations
Effects on Shell-forming organisms
- Carbon dioxide reacts with water to form a bicarbonate ion (HCO3) and a hydrogen ion
(H)
- That extra hydrogen ion reacts with carbonate (CO3) to form another bicarbonate
- When a carbonate binds with hydrogen ion, it can no longer bind with calcium (Ca) to
form shells
The Greenhouse Effect
- A process by which thermal radiation from the Earth is absorbed by greenhouse gases
(GHGs) and is re-emitted to the Earth’s surface, resulting in an elevation of surface
temperature
Human activities intensify the greenhouse effect
- CO2 and other GHs in the atmosphere have increased substantially in the industrial era
due to human activities
- Common GHGs
- Water vapor
- Carbon dioxide
- Methane
- Nitrous oxide
- High concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere during winter time, vise versa in the
summer
Common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR)
- Spatial challenge
- Emissions all over the world cause climate change
- People will be differentially affected
- Effects in a given location not proportional to emissions
- Inter-generational challenge
- Effects of climate change caused by centuries of emissions
- Our emissions will harmfully affect future generations
Evidence of Climate Change
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Global decline of glaciers and ice caps both on the sea and on the land
- Shrinking glaciers
- Snow cover retreats earlier
- Shrinking sea ice in arctic
- Reductions in permafrost
Impacts on human societies?
- Reductions in irrigation water
- Changing seasons- impacting agriculture
- Winter recreation activities, aesthetics, culture
- Melting permafrost - impacting native people’s way of life (refrigeration, losing
land, damaged houses, and infrastructure…)
- Fishing grounds, navigation
Rising sea levels
- Little change in previous 2000 years
- Gradually in the 20th century (1.7 mm/year)
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Now increased rate, since 1993, 3mm/year = inch per decade
Due to
- Thermal expansion
- Melting of ice
Impacts on human societies?
- Major frequent floods
- Major cities and population centers will be under water
- Impacts on coastal communities
- Forced migration, climate refugees
- Water and soil contamination
- Changing habitats for nearshore ecosystems
- Impacts on aquaculture
- Infiltration of sea water
- Changes in the weather system
- More extreme weather
- Increasing severity of storms
- Change sin precipitation
- More frequent flooding
- Biological and ecosystem changes
- Range shifts
- Seasonal shifts in arrival or activity
- Spread of disease (e.g. Lyme disease, West Nile virus)
- Impacts on marine species
Review: Climate Change
- Drivers of climate change
- Energy from sun (Milankovitch cycle), albedo, radiation from earth into space
- The greenhouse effect
- Greenhouse gasses and trends in concentration
- GHG emissions by region: annual, per capita, cumulative
- Common but differentiated responsibilities
- GHG emissions by section and mitigation options
- Energy in industry, buildings, transport
- Agriculture, forestry, and land use
- Evidence and impacts of climate change
- Snow and ice
- Oceans and sea levels
- Weather and climate
- Biological and ecosystems
- Health and society
Social and Political Dimensions of Climate
Change(9)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
- Group of scientists and governments created in 1988 by the World Meteorological
Organization and the U.N Environment Programme (UNEP)
- The U.N. body for assessing the science related to climate change. (IPCC does not
conduct research itself)
- Mandate: “provide decision-makers and others interested in climate change with an
objective source of information”
- The IPCC projections tend to be conservative
1990 (1st Assessment Report)
- “[The observed warming in the 20th century] is broadly consistent with predictions of
climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability. Thus,
the observed increase could be largely due to this natural variability…”
1995 (2nd Assessment Report
- “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate”
2001 (3rd Assessment Report)
- “There is new and stronger evidence… most of the observed warming over the last 50
years ie likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations”
2007 (4th Assessment Report
- “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th
century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations”
2014 (5th assessment report)
- “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal… it is extremely likely that more than half
of the observed increase in global average surface temperature was caused bu the
anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations”
2023 (6th Assessment Report
- “It has been clear for decades that the Earth’s climate is changing, and the role of human
influence on the climate system is undisputed
Part 2: Public Perceptions of Climate Change
Gap between belief and action
- 29% of Americans have been using their consumer purchases as a way to encourage
corporations to take steps to reduce global warming
-
13% of Americans have written letters, emailed, or phoned a government official about
global warming
18% of Americans intended to urge government officials to take action to reduce global
warming over the next 12 months
30% of Americans are willing ot join a campaign to convince elected officials to take
action to reduce global warming
Cognitive Dissonance
- Cognitive dissonance refers to a situation involving conflicting attitudes, beliefs, or
behaviors
- This produces a feeling of mental discomfort and psychological stress
- People attempt to relieve this tension in different ways, such as by rejecting, explaining
away, or avoiding new information
Eco-anxiety
- Ecological or climate anxiety: “a chronic fear of environmental doom” American
Psychological Association (2017
- Dr. Jennifer Atkinson, UW-Bothell
Part 3: Climate Activism
Climate Activism
- Feel direct and definite impacts of climate change
- Nothing is more important than not having a functioning planet to live on
- Frustrated by the inactions of the adults
- Young people come together to fight for their own future
- Intergenerational ethical challenge
- The legal case: sue the U.S. government because they feel the government fails to
protect them from environmental damage
- Main request: require the government to write a recovery plan to reduce carbon
emissions to 350 ppm by 2100
Agriculture, biogeochemistry, and planetary
boundaries(10)
Outline
- Review
- GHG
- Biogeochemical systems
- Stock and flow diagrams
- Agriculture’s impacts on Earth’s systems
-
Green revolution and Modern Agriculture
Review: What is a bio-geo-chemical cycle?
- Bio
- Geo
- Chemical
- The flow of chemical compounds and their elements from one “stock” or “reservoir” to
another “stock” and back again
- It’s a closed cycle (under natural circumstances)
- There is a balance between the abiotic (geo) and biotic (bio) world
- When you add outside input, or “steal” from the slow cycles, bad things happen
- (although they may seem good at first)
Review: Stock and Flow Diagrams
- Attempt to model complex biogeochemical dynamics
- Flows from one stock to another
- Where are the sources and where are the sinks?
- Net emitters vs. net absorbers
- Why do we care??
- Interactions
- Vulnerabilities
- Natural resiliency or buffering
- You cannot understand sustainability without understanding these systems!
Review: what are some sources and sinks for CO2?
- Source: a net producer of CO2
- Sink: a net absorber of CO2
Ancient frozen organic matter: soil becoming a source
- CH4 and CO2 released through decomposition of newly warmed Arctic peat or
permafrost
- CH4 by anoxic respiration from methanogens
- Positive feedback loop here
- CH4 released through anoxic decomposition of newly unfrozen peat (respiration by
methanogens)
- Warming creates positive feedback loop
Is this a viable climate change solution? (iceland technological CO2 absorber/sink)
- Very high energy input
- Miniscule rate of fixation
- Dependent on local geology
Agriculture and its effects on Earth’s systems
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Land-system change (40% of Earth)
12% is cropland
- 60% for human food
- 35% for livestock food
- 5% for biofuels
28% is pastureland
- Negative feedbacks require more land conversion
Affects biosphere integrity
- Extinction
Affects climate change
- Loss of natural ecosystems
- Loss of carbon through ag soil
Freshwater use (70% of earth’s’ freshwater withdrawals)
- Up to 90% in some locations
- Green water vs. blue water
Green water is rain water, blue water is lakes streams groundwater
- Where we farm matters, farm where there is more rainfall
- Water needs are increasing
Biogeochemical flows (nitrogen)
- More N comes from Haber Bosch than any other source
- Pollution: soil, air, and water
- Environmental costs outweigh benefits?
Biogeochemical flows (phosphorus)
- P mining for agriculture
- 2-3x accelerated P cycle
- Eutrophication of freshwater
Climate change
- 11% of total GHG emissions
- 29% if entire food production chain is considered
- CO2 emission at all stages
- Fertilizer to distribution
- Loss of CO2 absorbing forests
- Ocean acidification
- N2O from fertilizers in soils (also depletes ozone)
Which has a bigger impact on planetary boundaries?
- Steel production
- Cement production
- Plastics
- Ammonia (NH4)
Largest GHG emitter
- Steel production
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Cement production
Plastics
Ammonia (NH4)
Diagram of Haber-Bosch Process
-
Fritz Haber, Carl Bosch, 1909-10
Nobel prize
>50% of humanity dependent on this!
- Impossible to feed humanity without it
Global food production would be 70% lower without it
N is essential for plant cell function and chlorophyll production
The Phosphorous cycle: where from? Where to?
- Primarily from rocks
- Mined or naturally weathered
Problems with over-abundant N and P
- Erosion into water: eutrophication
- Fertilizes algae > algae bloom > algae die > algae decompose
- Decomposers suck all O2 out of water via respiration - sound familiar?
- A dead zone ensues (biodiversity loss > destroys fishing > impacts food system)
- Volatilization of NH3 into N2O in warm weather: a GHG and ozone depleting gas
- Nitrogen in large quantity is poisonous to soil organisms
Green Revolution: blessing or curse?
- Research and food movement in the 1950s - 70s
- Address hunger in developing countries
- Funded by U.S,. private, and international agencies
- Relies on genetically engineered crops
- Massive increase in yields per unit area
- Les destruction of habitat
- Relies on industrial irrigation, fertilizer, pesticides, and herbicides
- More recently: genetically modified organisms (GMOs)
- Results in massive decrease in hunger and malnutrition worldwide
Green Revolution: Cons
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Fossil fuel dependency
- Direct: tractors, processors, etc
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Indirect: haber-bosh process, synthesis of pesticides/herbicides, irrigation, plastic
sheets
Monoculture (low crop diversity)
- Crops have low genetic diversity
- Disease and pest susceptibility
- Strip soil of nutrients
Nutrient leaching and salinization (due to over watering)
- Water availability
Soil loss erosion and desertification due to plowing
Chemical pollution (land, water, and air)
- Pesticides
- Herbicides (and GMOs that resist herbicide so you can spray more)
- Fungicides
- N and P runoff
Expensive
- Relies on efficiency of scale
- Ethics of GMOs
Listen to the news of fertilizer crisis in Europe
- Fertilizer and the fuel to produce are part of a disrupted globalized food chain
- Supply is low and prices are up
- Without it, next year’s wheat crop will be halved
Challenge: how do we double food production in the next 20 years?
- Feed 2-3 billion more people
- Feed people who demand high quality diets/meat
- And do so w/in planetary boundaries
- Biochemical flows
- Genetic diversity
- Land system change
- Climate change
- Water impacts
Agriculture, biogeochemistry and planetary boundaries Part 2 (10/25/23)
The Nitrogen Cycle: Where from/ Where to?
Phosphorus Cycle: Where from? Where to?
- Primarily from rocks
- Mined or naturally weathered
- P boundary has also transgressed
- 2-3x “natural amounts of P”
Regenerative Agriculture (term coined by the Rodale Institute)
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A system of farming that rehabilitates the entire ecosystem and enhances natural
resoruces, rather than depleting them
Above and beyond “organic”
Characterized by practices that mimic natural ecological processes
- Closed nutrient loops
- Reduction or elimination of herbicides and pesticides
- Greater crop and biological diversity (including in soils)
- Highly controlledl livestock grazing
Extends beyond our treatment of natural resources and includes committment to animal
welfare and social fairness
Regenerative Farming
Some practical principles of regenerative:
- Year round green is good
- Cover crops are necessary
- Bare soil will lose C and N
- Suppress weeds
- Replenish N (pea family)
- Keep living roots in the soil
- Fewer annuals, more perennials
- Keep soil microbes alive!
- Healthy thriving ecosystem in the soil which cycles carbon and nutrients
- Fungi, bacteria and insects
- Includes symhbiotic mycorrhizal fungi
- Better enable plants to take up water and nutrients
- Protect plants from disease
- Crop diversity is key
- Limit or avoid chemical use
- Limit N use (poisons natural N fixers)
- Limit P use
- Animal integration
- Partial grazing of grasslands to stimulate below ground root growth (CO2
sequestration)
- Manure as fertilizer?
- Compost and crop residues (old stems left on field)
- Keep soil covered
- Maintain nutrients and moisture
- Suppress weeds
- Feed the soil (not the crop)
- Reducing tillage frequency and depth
- Don’t disturb the stored carbon
- Added benefit:
- Don’t drive the tractor as much
How is carbon captured and stored?
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-
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CO2 absorbed at leaf during photosynthesis
Sugars (C6H12O6) shunted to roots
- Some exuded and stored in soils
Roots grow bigger
- A whole ecosystem of fungi, bacteria, and micro animals evolves in the
rhizosphere
Microbes feed on dead plant cells
- Nutrients released to soil
- Some carbon released as CO2 (respiration)
- Net absorption of carbon into microbe bodies
When mcirobes die, their tinuy carbon bodies are bound into the soil particles and stored
for 1000s of years, unless disturbed
KEY Points:
- Dead plant and animal cells in soil cannot be allowed to decompose too fast or
close to the surface. This is one reason soil tilling is bad - it brings buried organic
material to the warm surface and speeds up decomposition leading to net release
of carbon to atmosphere in form of CO2 (traditionally, tilling i sussed to suppress
weeds, aerate soil, and warm the soil - good for crops in shortterm)
- Healthy soil is a thriving underground ecosystem of living and dead plant matter,
and various soil organisms that feed on this plant matter. Kept underground, soil
can be a carbon sink
Rodale Institute make an amazing claim (can it be true?)
- Data from exemplary regenerative systems suggests:
- “If achieved globally, would drawdown more than 100% of annual CO2
emissions”
- This is an interesting thought experiment (back of the envelop calculation)
Regenerative: can it sequester all of our annual CO2 emissions?
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Soil will reach a carbon saturation point, some soil can gain more than others
It is affected by moisture content of soil
Soil temperature
- Too cold - slow decomposition (high CO2 storage), but slow plant growth
- Too hot - fast decomposition (low CO2 storage), fast growth and fast CO2 cycling
back to atmosphere
You would need to do this over the entire grassland of earth, including introducing
grazers to all of those areas (do we want to do this?)
How long can soil actually hold onto carbon?
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Are cover crops enough to build and cycle N? What is the C price of outside N addition?
E.g. compost and manure?
Livestock grazing (more practical in some places than others)
- Increased methane production feeding on grass vs. corn or beans
- CO2 input of winter forage (hay) is high
- Volatilization of manure to N2O
Increased potential for weeds in organic no-till systems
Bottom line
- More research is needed
- Verify claims and techniques
Myths
- Increased labor, reduced yields, more space needed
- Although may be true for some commodities, like cotton
Grazing the prairies
- Co-evolved with bison
- Light grazing simulates massive root system (soil carbon)
Sustainable Agriculture and Food Systems(11)
Study note posted at the end of each nodule
- Study from the slides
A Poem from: We had our own reasons
- “By Ricardo Ruiz and other hard-working Mexicans from Eastern Washington”
Outline for today
- Finish evaluating regenerative organic agriculture
- Food: Impacts and challenges
- Feeding the world
- Things we can do as individuals
- Food (in)justice
Regenerative: Can it sequester all of our annual CO2 emissions?
-
Moister, temperature, and soils are not the same across the globe
Some soil will reach a carbon saturation point faster than others
moister/temperature
- Too cold/dry = slow decomp (high CO2 storage), but slow plant growth
- Too hot/wet = fast decomp (low CO2 storage), but fast plant growth and fast CO2
cycling back to atmosphere
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Space is needed: calculation based on the entire grassland area of earth
What is the GHG price of outside N addition? E.g. compost and manure?
Livestock grazing
- Is the land naturally grassland?
- Is there abundant winter forage?
- CO2 input of winter forage (hay) is high
- Methane production feeding on grass is high
- Volatilization of manure to N2O
Bottom line
- Answer is “maybe”
- Verify claims and techniques in different climate zones
- Improve C accounting and measurement tech
- Distracts from more immediate practical solutions
Why the enthusiasm about grazing?
- Example: native prairie grasses in the midwest
- Co-evolved with bison
- Light grazing stimulates massive root system (healthy soil ecosystem, with high carbon)
Mycorrhizal Fungi:
- Connect the root systems of trees in the forest, or crops in a field. Gather water and
nutrients for the crops, in exchange for sugar from the crop. Can shut down resources
from plant to plant to protect plants from disease. The fungus wants the plants tob e
alive, because it depends on them for survival
Regenerative Organic: Myths
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Increased labor required
- Could actually be less if properly managed: Education and care needed
- But if farms are smaller, may need more farmers (so not a myth in some ways)
Reduced yields
- Could actually yield more on well-managed farms
More space needed
- Mainly due to false perception of reduced yields
- Could be less or equal space
Organic cotton currently does need more space (see optional NYT article) and water
- Likely poor soil and pest management
Food: impacts and challenges
- 1 billion people are hungry (⅛ of humans)
- 1b of people’s worth of food, wasted
- We will need to feed 9.7 billion people by 2050
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If more people shift to meat-heavy diets, as predicted, we will need to double food
production by 2050
Foley’s Challenge: How do we meet the needs of future population, and do so within planetary
boundaries? Do you think we can do it?
- And consider that transgression of these boundaries makes agriculture itself harder, e.g.
climate change
How do we do it? Foley’s 5 principles:
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Stop expanding agriculture’s footprint
- (pay poorer nations to preserve forests and grasslands if necessary)
Close hield gaps, especially in low yield areas
- Incorporate cover crops, compost, crop rotation
- Introduce fertilizer and irrigation in some cases
- Combining technologies/philosophies
Improve efficiency of resources use
- Avoid waste of water and fertilizer, avoid agricultural runoff into streams
- Increase use of N-fixing cover crops
- Reduce production of CO2 and methane from soil
Shift diets away from meat
- Meat is #1 destroyer of South American tropical forest (GHG sources and loss of
sink)
- Meat takes 35% of food-growing area
Avoid food waste (currently 30% of all food)
- Wasted food could currently feed 1 billion people
- Wasted food accounts for 2x more GHG emissions than air travel
In general
- Avoid beef, lamb and cheese
- Plants of all kinds typically have the lowest impact
- But consider the exceptions, e.g. Washington chicken vs plastic greenhouse
grown tomatoes in Central America. What are the limiting resources and which
do we consider?
- What you eat matters a lot more than whether it’s local or organic, or what kind of bag
you use to carry it home from the store
- Waste less. Buying what you need and actually eating it - instead of tossing it out means that the energy used to produce your food has been spent efficiently
- - Nuts use a lot of water
The Color of Food
- American community survey data
- Compiled by the applied research center (florida international university)
Food Justice
- Food justice seeks to ensure that the benefits and risks of where, what and how food is
grown, produced, transported, distributed, accessed and eaten are shared fairly. Food
justice represents a transformation of the current food system, including but not limited to
elimination disparities and inequities - The Color of Food
Food Chain (invisible workers)
- Plant the seeds > harvest the crops > package the food > deliver the food > serve the
food
- 6/10 people are undocumented immigrants, formerly incarcerated
- Labor laws do not apply, or not enforced
- Low wages, exposure to various environmental and workplace hazards
- Pollution, strenuous outdoor work, machinery
- Often food insecure: insufficient food or poor access to healthy food
Food deserts
- “Geographic areas where residents have few to no convenient options for securing
affordable and healthy foods - especially fresh fruits and vegetables” - Annie E. Casey
Foundation
- Food deserts are more strongly linked to race than income
- Health disparity more strongly linked to race than income
- “Food Swamps”: neighborhoods swamped with cheap, subsidized processed foods: carb
and sugar dense, high fructose corn syrup, etc
- Figure 5. Healthy food priority areas in seattle
- Orange = areas where there is higher poverty, over-abundant cheap fast food,
long travel time to grocery stores
- Overlap with areas with higher Hispanic population
Black Farmers Collective, Seattle
- Black people growing food in black spaces
- Hannah Wilson
- YES! Farm
Charlotte Cote: UW American Indian Studies
- Food sovereignty: the right of peoples to healthy and culturally appropriate food
produced through ecologically sound and sustainable methods, and their right to define
their own food and agriculture systems
- Living breath indigenous food symposium, every May at the UW Intellectual House
The Freshwater System(12)
Water is inaccessible to some regions in the world
Globally, 70% of freshwater is used for agriculture, as compared to domestic or industrial.
Scarcity of Water
In 2022, 2.2 billion people still lacked safely managed drinking water
• 703 million without a basic water service
• 3.5 billion people lacked safely managed sanitation
• 1.5 billion without basic sanitation services
• 2 billion lacked a basic handwashing facility
• 653 million with no handwashing facility at all
Water is an SDG for the UN
Globally, fresh water is abundant
• However, in many parts of the world supplies are inadequate and dwindling
• The problem is with the distribution and reliability of precipitation
• Water availability is a function of the size of the population and demands placed on the
resource: irrigation, groundwater pumping
• Freshwater is a “potentially renewable” natural resource, but the renewal takes time.
• If demand exceeds supply or if we extract freshwater faster than it naturally replenishes, water
shortage and depletion will occur.
Drought is not stable, it can shift very quickly
Drought is not water availability, it is how much we have depleted available resources.
Groundwater Mining causes groundwater levels to deplete, which causes rivers to stop flowing
sometimes.
Recycled Water in UW(13)
Residential water usage is going down, connections are going up.
Gallons per house are going down.
Homes are smaller.
In Washington, discharges go out to the Puget Sound which impacts fish.
Tire dust is the most toxic thing in our rainwater.
They are cleaning water through treatment and turning it into “purple” water(recycled water)
Measuring Nitrogen and Phosphorus is a challenge
12$ a gallon to treat
No mix toilet
Treatments
Primary: Taking wastewater from home and disinfecting it and sending it to a receiving body of
water.
Secondary: Aeration basin, organisms in an aeration base break water down and clean it up.
More concentrated. Require lots of oxygen.
Tertiary: Vacuum cleans up water from the sludge from secondary and chlorine and UV finish
the job.
They use chromic acid in the space station
Nutrient Removal
Eutrophication
Nitrogen's biggest source is wastewater in Puget Sound.
MOST DRINKING WATER IS RECYCLED(TECHNICALLY ALL)
ENERGY(14)
Higher GDP = More energy use
Oil:
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Finite
Unevenly distributed which leads to injustice
Supply will only last about 40 years
Optimism regarding undiscovered oil fields, oil below sea floor, and advances in
exploration, recovery and production.
Hydraulic fracturing (fracking)
– Fracturing rock by a pressurized liquid
– Horizontal drilling
– 60% of all new oil and gas wells worldwide
– Greatly increased oil and gas reserves
– Environmental impact
– Contamination of groundwater
– Depletion of fresh water
– Health impacts
– Earthquakes
Coal:
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Original fuel
Powered industrial revolution
Very large world supplies, concentrated in the middlelatitudes of the Northern
Hemisphere: China, U.S., Russia
Us usage declining, still used commonly in China
Natural gas:
● High efficiency and requires little processing
● Lowest impact on the environment of all fossil fuels.
● 25% of global energy consumption and growing
Nuclear:
Advantage: Near zero carbon emission: switching from fossil fuels to nuclear energy would be
the single most effective way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S.
Disadvantages:
- High costs, safety concerns, radioactive waste
- Requires large bodies of water for cooling impact on nearshore ecosystem
Biomass:
Organic material produced by plants, animals, or microorganisms that can be burned directly as
a heat source or converted into a liquid or gas (related to the fast carbon cycle and modern
carbon)
Advantage: Clean and renewable energy
Disadvantages:
- Heavy applications of nitrogen fertilizer, herbicides, and pesticides for growing corn and
sugarcanes
- Requires a lot of land, impacts natural ecosystems
- Food security drives up food price
- Fluctuation of corn/sugarcane prices
- Energy return on energy invested is low
Hydropower:
Clean source of energy
PNW produces ⅓ of US hydroelectricity.
Advantages:
Clean, renewable, cheap operation costs, high EROEI, water supply.
Disadvantages:
- Location-specific
- Costly to transmit electricity over long distances
- Environmental impacts: disrupt ecosystems, alter streamflow patterns, trap silt in
reservoirs, block pathways for migratory fishes
- Social impacts: flood land and villages, displaces people and livelihood
- Elwha River Dam Removal Project, 2011
Solar:
Advantages: Infinite, no GHG emissions, distributive, and relatively affordable.
Disadvantages: Storage, transmission, production, recycling, aesthetics, and competition with
local habitats.
Wind:
Advantages: Do not pollute air or water, renewable, technological advances lowered the cost of
electricity generation. Expected to play a growing role in the future.
Disadvantages:
- Unreliable; Need constant and steady winds
- Energy cannot be easily stored
- Cost for building transmission lines
- Aesthetic impact
- The frequency produced is hazardous to migrating birds and bats
UW Energy(15)
To heat buildings, we burn natural gas to create steam at our central plant and send it to
buildings in tunnels.
To cool buildings, we run electric chillers at our central plant to chill water and send it to
buildings via tunnels. In addition, many buildings have their own chillers.
Challenges:
GUG Emissions
Energy Efficiency
Aging Infrastructure
Electrical Capacity Constraint
Drivers:
● UW’s power plant represents 93% of the UW Seattle Campus GHG emissions.
● Required by Legislation, the Washington State Clean Building Performance Standard
Act requires that state-owned district energy systems have a decarbonization plan in
place by June 2025.
● Energy Efficiency, collectively UW’s buildings consume twice as much energy as they
should.
● Aging Steam Plant, investments will be required anyway. Better to invest in new
infrastructure that addresses energy needs
● Reliable & resilient energy systems are essential to support world-class research and
healthcare.
● New funding available, the federal Inflation Reduction Act and the State’s Climate
Commitment Act will be the primary sources of the energy renewal funding strategy.
Goals:
● Develop an Energy Implementation plan, executed over 10 years, that identifies the
scope, schedule, sequence, budget, and cash flow for individual projects to replace or
re-purpose the aging infrastructure.
● Reduce operating costs and carbon emissions by changing the UW's power plant's
primary fuel source from natural gas to electricity and increase energy captured from
multiple heat recovery options.
● Provide utility reliability & resiliency that support world-class research and healthcare
facilities.
● Align with the Building Renewal Plan implementation program to maximize renewal
opportunities, serve future building loads, and minimize campus disrupƟon.
● Ensure Inclusive Stakeholder Engagement in the program analysis, advocacy,
awareness, and buy-in to support decision transparency and future longevity of the
program.
https://canvas.uw.edu/courses/1663804/assignments/8521030?module_item_id=18858555
Biodiversity(16)
Morphological species concept
Biological species concept
Phylogenetic species concept
Diversity is richest near the equator
Energy is lost as you move up the food chain, primary producers(photosynthesizers), primary
consumers(herbivores), secondary consumers, and tertiary consumers.
Estimated 10-50 million species, 2 million named. 4000 mammal species.
Trophic cascades are indirect effects that transfer across trophic levels If a keystone species
dies, its effect will be felt on all trophic levels.
Threats:
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97% of species that have ever existed are extinct
All present species will eventually go extinct
Mass extinctions have determined the composition & diversity of life on earth through
time
● At least five mass extinction events in the past
● We are likely entering the 6th mass extinction event
● Currently, the rate of extinction is equal to the rate of past mass extinction events.
But, the 6th Extinction is Different
● Species are being lost at an alarming rate
● Rate 1000x pre-Anthropocene background rate (possibly climbing to 10,000x)
● 20-50% of species extinct by the end of the 21st Century
● Diversity loss occurs at all three levels (genes, species, ecosystems)
● Human caused
● How unique is this situation?
● Do we have an obligation to fix it?
HIPPO
Habitat Loss
Invasive Species
Pollution/Pathogens
Population Growth(humans)
Over Exploitation
Climate Change
Fragmentation, land is split up.
Fragments are bad:
Edge effects, sun, and wind penetration
Invasive Species
Isolation effects
• Some organisms are “stuck” and run out of resources
• Small habitats = fewer resources, fewer individuals
• Inbreeding = loss of genetic diversity, gene-linked disease
• Leads to loss of species (especially top predators and large mammals requiring more
resources)
• Changed ecological interactions (competition, habitat structure)
Isolation mediated by
• matrix
• distance to source population
• dispersal ability of organism (do they fly or walk?)
Land Shape:
1. Single large beats several small
2. Closer is better
3. Connected is a better, higher-quality matrix
4 R’s
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Representation: Protected areas should contain a diverse range of species,
ecosystems, and genetic diversity to ensure the conservation of biodiversity.
●
Resiliency: Protected areas should be large enough to maintain biodiversity in the
face of environmental changes, natural disasters, and other threats.
●
Redundancy: A network of protected areas should not rely on a single area to
conserve key aspects of biodiversity. Instead, important biodiversity should be
included in multiple protected areas to ensure its long-term existence.
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Reality: Each protected area requires sufficient funding, political will, defensibility,
and local support to effectively conserve biodiversity over the long term.
Critiques
Most people are viewed as a threat to biodiversity, and Western biologists are seen as saviors
Conservation biology may be a form of eco colonialism.
Sustainability(17)
Examples of sustainable practices:
• Timber industry in the Pacific Northwest
• Sustainable food production system
• Innovations in fuel economy and public transit
• Campus sustainability
History of Sustainable Devlopment:
1987, The Brundtland Commission, “Our Common Future”
“Sustainable Development is a development that meets the needs of the current
generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own
needs.”
1992, The Earth Summit at Rio, Agenda 21
- The concept of “Sustainable Development” was adopted as a shared global concept
- The Commission on Sustainable Development was created
SDGs
LEED:
- Developed by US Green Building Council 1998
- Environmentally responsible and resource efficient design
- Many US federal agencies, state, and local governments require LEED buildings
UW is ranked in the top 10% of universities worldwide for sustainability efforts
- 29 LEED certified buildings
- 58% waste diversion rate
- Divestment from coal companies
- ~13 million dollars saved annually through utility conservation
- Reduced GHG emissions by 8% since 2005
- UW Farm, UW Solar, Green Laboratories, Sustainability Fund,...
- UW Sustainability Office: http://green.uw.edu/
- Courses: Sustainability Choices (ENVIR 239), Sustainable Society(ENVIR 439),
Sustainability Consulting Practicum (ENVIR 480)
Environmental Economics(18)
Micro vs Macro economics
Key topics of Environmental Economics:
Resource Scarcity
Pollution
Market Success:
Where self-interested behavior benefits the whole market.
Invisible Hand:
- Situations where self-interested behavior by individuals benefits society as a whole
- The invisible hand - a natural phenomenon that guides free markets and capitalism
through competition Free market and deregulation
- Examples: creation of jobs, price competition, a variety of choices, innovation, ...
- Profit-maximizing entities have incentives for exploration, innovation, and conservation
Market Failure:
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Situations where self-interested behavior by individuals does not benefit society as a
whole
Markets don’t always take all costs of production into account Externalities
Externalities: cost of the exchange of goods or services not included in (i.e. external to)
the price of the goods or services (e.g. cost to the environment, to human health, or to
other countries)
Examples: child labor, pollution, overfishing, traffic jam, ...
Tragedy of the Commons:
Individual incentives can motivate people to make decisions that hurt the whole market.
Example:
Overfishing benefits an individual fisherman but collectively hurts all.
Coal Power is cheaper
Solutions to TOC:
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Economic incentives or disincentives
Internalizing the cost of externalities
Examples: Higher gasoline prices, refund for recyclables items, taxes
Privatization
Goal: make it in the interest of property owner to conserve the resource
Examples: fencing of common pastures, individual transferable quotas (ITQ) in fishery
management
Governmental Regulation
Laws and regulation “Mutual coercion, mutually agreed upon”
People deny TOC, but with a large enough population, their arguments fall apart.