Introduction
Technologies and the future
Automation, worldwide networking and globalisation
are the buzzwords of our times. Social processes in all
areas are becoming more intricate and less transparent, as most individuals in modern industrial societies
would agree. By stepping out of nature into the increasingly anthropogenic environment of our culture,
humankind has taken control of its own social development, and in the longer term probably even of its evolutionary development. In times when individuals
find it difficult to comprehend the full scale of the developments that are happening in business, science
and society, the positive and negative aspects of mastering this challenge are becoming increasingly obvious. Is the growing complexity of modern society truly inevitable? To put it succinctly: yes. Whichever area
of society we look at, development always implies
greater differentiation. A society in which the village
chief is responsible for settling disputes is less complex
than a society that has engendered specialised professions and institutions for this purpose in the form of
Development of structural scales studied in the disciplines of
physics, chemistry and biology from 1940 to the present day. The
orders of magnitude in the fields of work and study associated
with these disciplines are converging. This will permit the inte­
grated application of biological principles, physical laws and
chemical properties in future. Source: VDI Technologiezentrum
GmbH
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structural
scale
„top down“
physics
electrical
engineering
electronics
n
tio
ge
em
st
use of
quantum
effect
sy
n
„bottom up“
io
at
liz
cell biology
na
biology
ne
tio
nc
ra
fu
microelectronics
nanotechmolecular
nology
biology function
biosensors,
molecule design molecular electronics
neurotechnology
coordination
supramolecular
coordination
chemistry
chemistry chemistry
integrated application
of biological principles,
the laws of physics, and
chemical properties
judges and attorneys. We regard the security, conveniences and justice that are made possible by this growing complexity as achievements of our culture, and we
no longer want to live without them. With regard to
scientific and technical development, the situation is
much the same. Today, technical innovations also tend
to be derivatives of existing applications: They induce
new markets, give rise to new job profiles, and create
new lifestyles and social trends. This reciprocal action
and interaction at the same time shows why it is now
too narrow a concept to imagine innovation processes
as being simple and linear. Innovations, defined for
our present purposes as novel inventions that have
gained widespread market acceptance, are created
through close interaction between different players,
social groups, and evolving technical possibilities. For
the individual, it is not important to understand each
differentiation in detail; what matters more is to master the complexity by knowing where to find which
knowledge and what information, and by learning to
apply them in the right context.
77 Interdisciplinary convergence. It is remarkable
that the fundamental scientific disciplines of physics,
chemistry and biology are becoming increasingly dependent on mutual support and insights. This applies
not only to the questions they set out to answer, but
also to the methods they use. The blurring of traditional boundaries becomes particularly evident when it
comes to transforming research findings into products
and technical applications. This is clearest when we
look at the sizes of the structures dealt with by scientists in each of these fields. In the last 50 years, as a result of advancing miniaturisation, the size of structures in applied physics has shrunk from the centimetre
scale in electrical engineering, through electronics and
microelectronics, to less than 100 nm in nanoelectronics. The scale of the structural features being investigated in biology, too, has diminished at a similar rate.
From classical biology through cell biology and molecular biology, the biological sciences have now arrived
at the stage of functional molecule design using the
same tiny structures as in physics. At the same time,
this opens up new avenues for functionalisation. Natural or modified biological systems of a size and structure that were hitherto customary in physics or chem-
3
istry can now be used specifically for technical
applications in biotechnology plants. The reverse tendency can be observed in the field of chemistry. Starting from traditional chemistry – with smaller molecules in inorganic and organic chemistry, at least
originally – scientists have graduated via coordination
chemistry and supramolecular chemistry to increasingly complex nanoscale structures. When we look at
the sizes of structures, therefore, it becomes evident
that the fields of work and study associated with the
three fundamental scientific disciplines of physics,
chemistry and biology are rapidly converging. The
laws of physics, chemical properties and biological
principles will be more closely interrelated than we
could ever have imagined in the future.
Today’s truly profound interdisciplinary understanding of modern materials sciences has paved the
way for “tailor-made” new materials. Superalloys, nanomaterials, electrically conductive plastics and lightemitting polymers are examples of materials in which
highly sophisticated technology is associated with significant value-enhancing potential. The interdisciplinary approach is also reflected in the discussion on
converging technologies that is currently taking place
on a more basic scientific level. Alongside nano-, bioand information technology, the cognitive sciences
have emerged as a crucial fourth element of the convergence process. Consequently, it will become less and
less possible to assign future products and above all
their production processes to any specific discipline.
This becomes evident as soon as we consider individual fields of technology such as electronics – one need
only think of areas such as mechatronics (e. g. antilock
braking systems) or polymer electronics (e. g. conductive plastics for flat-screen monitors). Other examples
include the convergence of disciplinary concepts towards biology, as we can easily see when we consider
nano-biotechnology, neurotechnology or individual
products such as biochips or drug delivery systems.
Hardly surprisingly, the concept of “interdisciplinary science” is also undergoing a semantic change.
Whereas in the past it mainly signified the necessity of
cooperation between different disciplines in order to
gain new insights, today it is becoming an elementary
requirement for translating the findings of basic and
applied research into new products. This has made it a
decisive factor in securing future markets. This development, in turn, has far-reaching consequences for
our educational system, for the organisation of scientific work in industrial enterprises, and for publicly
funded research. In the medium term, our understanding of interdisciplinary science will even affect
the attitudes that we, as a society or as individuals,
adopt towards future technologies and new products.
Long-term tendencies in technological development can be found in other areas as well. The best
known example of this kind is Moore’s law. Moore postulated in 1965 that the memory capacity and processing speed of semiconductor chips would double every
18 months. Like a self-fulfilling prophecy, his forecast
became a principle in the semiconductor industry that
is described today as a “law”. Even if this prophecy is
predestined to confront the known and anticipated basic physical limits one day, it is still likely to remain
valid for at least the next decade – not forgetting that,
time after time, technological barriers make it necessary to explore new avenues. A current example is the
introduction of multicore processors, which is necessary because their increasing clock rate causes processors to dissipate too much power. However, developments of this kind and the technologies derived from
them – not to mention their constant optimisation and
evolution – are not an end in themselves. The true objective is to implement future products, and with them
the envisioned relief, assistance and opportunities for
large numbers of people, while minimising undesired
side effects such as the depletion of resources or environmental degradation. In order to face up to the global challenges, scientific insights must increasingly be
used in such a way as to yield significant improvements in efficiency and thus promote sustainability.
77 Sustainability through technology. Looking at
how their efficiency has developed from 1700 to today,
we can clearly see the tremendous progress made in
steam engines, lamps and light emitting diodes (LEDs).
The efficiency of steam engines in the year 1712 was
only around 1% as compared to around 40% for steam
turbines in 1955. An even more rapid increase in efficiency can be observed for lamps and LEDs. While the
efficiency of the first LEDs that entered the market in
1960s was lower than 1 lumen/watt, the efficiency has
risen to more than 90 lumen/watt for today´s LED´s.
Research and development activities are pushing for a
more efficient use of resources and rendering technology affordable for growing numbers of consumers.
Such tendencies are not only evident in areas of
technology that have evolved slowly over a long period
of time. Comparable statements can also be made concerning the anticipated future cost of generating energy from solar cells, for instance. According to a recent
estimate, these costs are expected to drop by almost a
whole order of magnitude over the period from 1990
to 2040. Fuel cell system costs are also expected to fall
in a similar way over the next 20 years. The same thing
BIO
INFO
converging
technologies
COGNO
NANO
“Converging technologies” as
a blending of different
disciplines and their respective
models: Particularly significant
in this context is cognitive
science, the findings of which
open up new dimensions for
technological applications.
Source: VDI Technologie­
zentrum GmbH
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100
InGaN
steam turbine
TS-AlGaInP
Parsons
three-stage expansion
fluorescent
mercury
sodium vapor
Cornish
Efficiency in percentage
(for LED: lumen/watt)
10
AlGaAs
Watt
steam
engine
1
tungsten
filament
GaASP:N
GaP:N
Newcomen
Edison`s first
light bulb
lamps
LEDs
wax candle
0.1
1710
1760
1810
GaAs
1860
1910
1960
2010
Development of the efficiency of steam engines, lamps and
LEDs from 1710 to 2010: For steam engines the logarithmic chart
shows an increase in efficiency from about 1% in the year 1712 to
40% for the steam turbine in the year 1955. A greater increase in
efficiency can be observed for lamps: Traditional candles and the
first Edison light bulb (around 1880) had an efficiency of less than
1%. The introduction of other types of filament (e. g. tungsten in
about 1907) enabled light bulb efficiency to be increased to sev­
eral percent. Around 1940, fluorescent lamps reached an effi­
ciency of about 30%. A more recent example of an even greater
increase in efficiency is the development of light-emitting diodes
(coloured LEDs in this case). In 1962, the conversion efficiency of
the first LEDs was inferior to that of wax candles. Ten years later
their efficiency (lumen per watt) had increased roughly tenfold.
This trend is ongoing. Source: VDI Technologiezentrum GmbH
modified after C. Marchetti
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can be said of electronics, where we need only think of
the drastically reduced power consumption of TV sets
in the past 70 years. The progress achieved from the
first cathode ray tubes through to the arrival of transistors and integrated circuits, and culminating in the
next generation of appliances illustrates the notion
that if the 20th century is known as that of the electron, then the 21st century could be termed the century of the photon (optoelectronics, projection, LCD/
plasma monitors).
Technological progress has brought about a substantial increase in efficiency, thus promoting sustainability. Sustainability, in this context, is understood in
its widest sense as the coalescence of environmental,
social and economic progress. In past centuries, technological progress unleashed the economic potential
of the world’s industrialised nations. The associated
spread and availability of engineered industrial products to ever-wider strata of the population has been a
major instrument of social change. Today’s media, mobility and medicine are the best illustrations of how ex-
tensively our lives are ruled by technical developments.
Until the mid-20th century, the ecological aspects of
technological development tended to take a back seat.
Looking at it this way, one might provocatively argue
that technological progress over the last few centuries
already unfolded and demonstrated its potential for
social and economic sustainability. In this century, our
primary concern is to safeguard these achievements in
the face of numerous global environmental challenges
by raising efficiency through lower resource consumption, minimised environmental impact, and more sustainable distribution. The majority of the technologies
described in this Technology Guide illustrate the fact
that technological development can do a great deal to
help master the global challenges, including our homemade problems.
77 Invisible technologies. Only a 100 years ago,
smoking chimneys and gigantic overburden dumps
were commonly accepted as visible symbols of the industrial age – despite their unpleasant side effects. Not
until the water, soil and air, became palpably affected
by pollution and the hazards to human health and the
environment were becoming evident, were technologies devised for removing the damage from the immediate vicinity. Pollutants were distributed or diluted
until they appeared to be harmless, at least in a local
context. It is only during the last 30 years that the problem has been attacked at the roots. First of all, the
emission of undesired pollutants was prevented with
the aid of filters and treatment processes – a strategy
that, though successful, was also expensive. The decisive step, and the one that really mattered in terms of
the future of our industrial societies, was to start integrating anti-pollution measures into production processes. Avoidance now took top priority, followed by recycling and – only if this was not possible – disposal.
New methods for conserving resources and reducing
environmental impact constitute challenges to the
economy, but they also provide a means of enhancing
efficiency and stimulating innovation, as is shown by
Germany’s position at the cutting edge of environmental technology.
The application of new technologies will enable us
to cut down “side effects” such as energy consumption
or space requirements in future. Undesired side effects
can be more rapidly identified, tackled and modified so
that they only occur to a much lesser extent. Not only in
this respect will technologies and their application be
less conspicuous in future. The discussion about “pervasive” (Xerox Parc 1988) or “ubiquitous” (IBM 1999)
computing gives us a foretaste of the extent to which
future technology development will integrate itself
5
4C-products
system costs in € per kilowatt-hour
even more smartly in our artificial and natural everyday worlds. Information and communication technology experts often also speak of “invisible” (University of
Washington) or “hidden” (Toshiba 1999) computing.
These terms make it clear that the very technologies
that have disappeared from view will in fact have a major impact on our future. They are integrated in our
everyday lives to such an extent as to become an indistinguishable part of them. We are growing accustomed
to these technologies and losing our awareness of their
very existence and of what they do to help us. We are
learning to take them for granted. After shopping in the
supermarket of the future, for instance, we can expect
to check out and pay without having to line up the
products on a conveyer belt in front of the cashier. The
products will no longer have (only) a barcode, but will
have electronic labels (RFIDs) that transmit the price
information on demand without physical contact.
In our daily dealings with networked computers,
too, we already make use of numerous automated services such as updates or security routines. The normal
user is hardly even conscious of them, or able to comprehend them in any detail. On the one hand, this liberates us from having to manipulate everyday technology – still a very cumbersome task in many ways. In a
world marked by sensory overload and a plethora of
information, this gives us more room to think – to a
certain extent, deliberately. On the other hand, this development entails the risk of losing our ability to perceive and understand technical and systemic interrelationships and thus also the supporting fabric of our
modern-day life. We find it even more difficult in the
case of applications such as self-organisation, artificial
intelligence or autonomous robotics. In these areas of
technology, due to the complexity of the processes involved, it is rarely possible to correlate the outcome
with specific internal sequences of actions.
The progress made in these areas of technology essentially determines the manner in which we will master global challenges such as the growing world population, dwindling resources, sustainable economic
development and other challenges. At the same time,
technological developments are being influenced to a
greater extent by socioeconomic decisions and social
pressure. Businesses that focus solely on the development of technologies and products derived from them
may find themselves among tomorrow’s losers. Unforeseen, sudden changes in the trends followed by
consumer markets may rapidly call for other technologies or products than those that are currently available.
It is therefore becoming increasingly important for
businesses to monitor long-term social and socioeco-
5000
building / private households
automotive
500
50
2005
2010
2015
2020
market entry
Fuel cells can be regarded as sustainable because they are
more efficient and produce lower emissions than internal com­
bustion engines, for example. In the future, they will be even
more cost-effective and reliable. The diagram shows the antici­
pated development of system costs for generating electricity
from fuel cells in euros per kilowatt-hour (€/kWh) over a period of
20 years. The system costs for applications in 4C products (cam­
corder, cell phones, computer, cordless tools) were at around
5000 €/kWh in 2005. Those costs will drop to a value of 500 €/kWh
for applications in buildings by 2010. For 2020, an even lower
value of 50 €/kWh is expected for automotive applications.
Source: Technologiezentrum GmbH modified after WZBU 2007
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nomic trends and to include them in the planning and
development of their strategies and products.
In this context, the question arises as to whether
technology is capable of solving all these challenges.
The prospect of a successful technological development must not be euphorically put forward and proclaimed as “the universal problem solution”. Global
warming and dwindling resources make it clear that
greater efficiency and technological innovations are
significant factors in finding a solution. However, we
must also change our habits, albeit with no restrictions
in the quality of life if possible. This is a social challenge, especially for pluralistic-democratic systems,
and increasingly calls for a sense of personal responsibility on the part of the individuals living in these societies. Today’s heightened awareness of health issues illustrates how such a change of attitude can take place
in our societies and force us to adopt greater personal
responsibility. Altough preventive medicine is driven
by advanced technologies (e. g. imaging), we will not
reap their full benefit until a lifestyle that values keeping fit and eating a healthy diet is seen as a sign of affluence in our society and we make our own active
contribution to our personal health.
Dr. Dr. Axel Zweck
VDI Technologiezentrum, ZTC, Düsseldorf