Efficient Energy Mix:
Japanese Experience
Bangkok, November 11, 2005
Yasuo Tanabe
Vice President
Research Institute of Economy,
Trade and Industry
1
Why Energy Efficiency & Diversified
Energy Mix?
- Key to long-term energy security
- Success of Japan’s energy policy
so far
2
1. Energy Efficiency
(1) GDP and Energy Consumption in Japan
real GDP（trillion yen）
18
30
（10 J）
600
510
25
500
real GDP（right axis）
(le
ft22.98
axi
primary energy supply
(left axis)
s)16.02
20
15
Elasticity
1965-73
73-79
79-86
86-91
91-03
1.19
0.29
-0.11
0.85
0.71
400
300
final energy consumption
10
(left axis)
200
7.07
5
100
4.54
0
0
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
00 02
（Fy）
Source : METI
3
(2) Energy Intensity of Key Countries
toe/mil.US$(1995)
900
83 7
800
700
600
500
376
400
299
249
300
200
90
100
0
China
Source : METI
Thailand
K orea
U.S.
Japan
4
(3) Energy Consumption by Sector in Japan
1970
2003
16%
24%
48%
17%
Residential and
Services
Transportation
66%
28%
Source : METI
Industry
(4) Energy Intensity ｂｙ Industries in Japan
Fy73=100
120
100
80
M a n ufa ct u r ing
S t ee l
C he m ica l
C em e nt
P a p er & P ulp
60
40
20
0
73
78
83
(energy consumption / IIP)
Source : METI
88
93
98
03
5
6
(5) Investment for Energy Conservation
Examples of technology
4,500
¥100mil.
4,000
3,500
Steel : CDQ, TRT, etc.
Cement : SP, NSP, etc.
3,000
manufacturing
2,500
2,000
1,500
steel
1,000
non-manufacturing
500
0
80
83
85
90
95
99
（Fy）
Source : METI
(6) Energy Efficiency of Consumer Products
a) Refrigerator=Perfect example of “Factor 4”
Source : METI
7
8
b) Air Conditioner
kWh
1200
1000
-35％
800
cool
600
heat
400
-44％
200
0
1995
Source : METI
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
9
c) Passenger Car
Fuel Efficiency of Passenger Cars
（ｋｍ/L)
18
17
16
+25％
15
Weight 1016kg∼
1265kg
Passenger Car Total
14
+20％
13
12
11
10
9
8
93
94
Source : METI
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
10
(7) Energy Intensity of Buildings
Kkcal/㎡
400
350
-24 ％
300
250
200
150
73
74
75
Source : METI
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
11
(8) Factors for Energy Efficiency Improvement
a) Market Forces
- “Market forces play a key role in
conserving scarce energy resources,
directing those resources to their most
highly valued uses.” (Greenspan)
- Price mechanism: demand & supply react
to prices
12
(8) Factors for Energy Efficiency Improvement
b) Industries’ Efforts
- TQC, cost consciousness
- Investment
- Technology
13
(8) Factors for Energy Efficiency Improvement
c) Government Policy
- Regulation (“Top Runner” approach of
efficiency standard)
- Incentives (soft-loan, tax credit, etc.)
- Information (PR, Labeling, etc)
- Good enforcement
14
2. Diversified Energy Mix
Hydro・New
geother 1%
Nuclear
mal
1%
Natural
4%
Gas
2%
Coal
15%
Nuclear
12%
Hydro・
geother
mal
4%
New
1%
Oil
51%
Natural
Gas
14%
Oil
77%
1973
Source : METI
Coal
19%
2002
15
(1) Natural Gas
(Megaton)
(Megaton)
70.00
LNG Demand
LNG Import
60.00
Industrial
50.00
40.00
City Gas
1.2％
60.00
29.3％
50.00
Oman
Qatar
Australia
40.00
30.00
Malaysia
30.00
20.00
69.4％
Electricity
10.00
10.00
0.00
1970
75
80
85
90
95
2000
UAE
20.00
Indonesia
U.S.A. Brunei
0.00
（Year）
70
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
(Year)
Source : METI
16
(1) Natural Gas
- Infrastructure (LNG Terminals,
Pipelines, etc)
- Long term Purchase Commitment
- Mainly Done by Utility Companies under
Regional Monopoly and Price Regulations
17
(2) Nuclear
Capacity（GW）
Capacity (GW)
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
Operational Rate（％）
Operational Rate(%)
4,574.2
4,574.2
4,508.34,491.7 4,491.7 4,491.7 4,574.2
4,254.7
4,119.1
81.7 80.5
4,036.6
76.0 75.7 77.1
75.4
84.2
73.9
73.8 74.2 3,837.6
81.3
71.4 70.0 72.7
73.4
80.2 80.8
80.1
76.6
3,323.93,411.9
3,148.0
59.7
2,928.1
2,788.12,870.1
2,568.1
2,452.1
100
90
80
70
60
50
2,056.1
2,000
40
1,500
30
1,000
20
500
10
0
0
84
Source : METI
89
94
99
(2) Nuclear
- National Strategy (since 1955 Basic Law∼）
- International Cooperation ( for technology,
non-proliferation, etc.)
(w. U.S., U.K., Fr. IAEA , etc.)
- Location Policy ( Special Purpose Tax
→ Subsidy to Local Area)
- Long term Investment by Power
companies under Regional Monopoly
18
(3) New & Renewable Energy
- Special Law for Promotion
- National R&D
- Subsidy for Introduction
- RPS Law (since 2003∼）
- Not Outstanding Results
New Energy (Electricity)(2001)
Solar
452MW
Wind
312MW
Waste 1,110MW
Biomus
71MW
19
20
(4) Coal
- Historically Major Source and Indigenous
Energy
→ Depletion, Loss of Competitiveness
→ Structural Adjustment
→ 100% Import
- Environmental Protection by Plants
- Hope : Clean Coal Technology
21
(5) What is Best Mix?
- Depends on Resource Endowment,
Social / Economic Conditions
- Diversified as Much as Possible
- More N Gas for Japan and Asia
- Nuclear: Debatable
2002
Nuclear
8%
Other
Hydro,
etc 1%
2%
2030
World (IEA)
22
Other
Hydro,
etc 2%
Nuclear 2%
5%
Oil
39%
Oil
40%
Natural
Gas
23%
Natural
Gas
28%
Coal
24%
Coal
26%
Hydro&
Other
5%
2002
Hydro&
Other
8%
2030
Nuclear
12%
Nuclear
15%
Japan (METI)
Oil
42%
Oil
51%
Natural
Gas
18%
Natural
Gas
14%
Coal
19%
Other
19%
2002
Asia (IEA)
Coal
17%
Oil
30%
Hydro
4%
Nuclear
9%
Natural
Gas
9%
Other
13%
2030
Oil
31%
Hydro
2%
Nuclear
5%
Natural
Gas
13%
Coal
36%
Coal
36%
23
3. Future Challenge for Japan
Possible Future Scenarios
1. Business-as-Usual Scenario
(Conceivable Pathway)
A Schemaic View of Several Possible Future Visions
and Anticipated Patways Toward 2030
Environmental Impact
・Environment-Conscious
Society
・Demand Management
smaller
Synergy of
Economy and Environment
Sustainable
Development Scenario
Environmental
Constraints Scenario
2. Sustainable Development
Scenario
(Technological Innovation,
Environmental Consciousness)
3. Environmental Constraints
Scenario
Business-as-Usual
Scenario
lower growth
higher growth
Present
Economic Welfare
(Environmental Constraints)
4. Crisis Scenario (International
Tension)
Source: author modified from METI
Crisis
Scenario
・Ｍａｓｓ Energy Consumption Society
larger
Challenges:
- Kyoto Protocol & Beyond (CO2)
- Further Energy Efficiency for
Transportation & Residential
- Nuclear as key to security and CO2
- Technology (Fuel Cell etc.)
- International Cooperation esp. Asian
Energy Partnership
24