IAAE 28th Congress
Foz do Iguaçu (Brazil), August 18-24 , 2012
Pre-Congress Workshop
Globalization, Macroeconomic Imbalances and South
America’s Potential To Be the World’s Food Basket
Latin America’s Contribution to World
Food Markets: GTAP Projections to 2030
Kim Anderson and Anna Strutt
discussion opening
Giovanni Anania
University of Calabria, Italy
(selective list of) the main findings 1/2
DC’s aggregate share of world GDP (2007
US$) rises from 26 to 46 percent in 23 years;
per capita incomes in DCs and HICs
‘converge considerably’, with ratio HICs/DCs
halving, from 11.4 to 5.7
DCs share of agricultural products in world
exports rises slightly, while both their shares
in manufactures and services in global
exports almost double; DCs share of primary
products in world imports rises substantially;
most is due to what happens in China and
South Asia
(selective list of) the main findings 2/2
primary products become less important in DCs
exports and considerably more important in their
imports, while the contrary is true for non primary
products
the opposite is true for Latin America
DCs self-sufficiency ratio falls from 100 to 96%,
in China from 98 to 88%
real per capita food consumption in DCs more
than double (+102%) between 2007 and 2030
when two (not dramatically different) alternative
scenarios with respect to TFP growth in the
primary sector are simulated, changes in results
are not very large
some (more) caveats
perfect competition and constant returns to
scale
employment of productive factors is fixed and
exogenously determined (endowments
change over time)
labour and capital are immobile
internationally, no FDI
international transaction costs do not change
over time
no domestic or trade policy change between
2007 and 2030
different assumptions & additional scenarios
a different closure of the model, to allow for
endogenous employment of productive factors
allowing for capital and labour mobility
between countries
domestic and trade policy changes
(endogenous reactions to changes in key variables,
historically observed patterns, minimum politically
feasible self-sufficiency rate in China...)
higher TFP growth rates (will R&D investments
eventually react to lower productivity growth rates?)
alternative scenarios regarding bio-fuels
policies