UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction
UCL IRDR 5th Annual Conference
Thursday 25th June 2015, 09:00 - 20:00 UCL Gustave Tuck Lecture Theatre and South
Cloisters
Programme
09:00 -­‐ 09:20 Registra/on at entrance to Gustave Tuck Lecture Theatre 09:20 – 09:30 Welcome from Prof Peter Sammonds, Director, UCL IRDR 09:30 -­‐ 11:00 Panel Discussion on “Current Views of Future Arc/c Risks”. Chair: Dr Ben Lishman 11:00 -­‐ 11:30 Coffee provided in South Cloisters 11:30 -­‐ 12:00 Talks on Visualisa/on and Presenta/on of Hazard and Risk part 1. Chair: Dr Joanna Faure Walker 12:00 -­‐ 13:00 Keynote by Professor Sir Mark Walport, Government Chief Scien/fic Advisor 13:00 -­‐ 14:30 Lunch break 14:30 -­‐ 15:30 Talks on Visualisa/on and Presenta/on of Hazard and Risk part 2 15:30 -­‐ 16:00 Coffee provided in South Cloisters 16:00 -­‐ 17:00 In conversa/on on Management of the Ebola Crisis. Chair: Dr Ilan Kelman 17:00 -­‐ 17:30 Poster introduc/ons. Chair: Dr Gordon Ross 17:30 -­‐ 20:00 Poster session and Recep/on in South Cloisters Panel Discussion: Current Views of Future Arc6c Risks The near future of the Arc/c is uncertain. There is a scien/fic consensus that we can expect a con/nued reduc/on in sea ice extent and volume, but the broader implica/ons of this change are difficult to predict. Many risks are predicted in the Arc/c -­‐ to indigenous people, to the biosphere, to commercial ac/vi/es and to geopoli/cal rela/ons, for example -­‐ but these risks are unlikely to play out immediately. How well can our current understanding describe the future of risk in the Arc/c? We will hold a panel discussion on Arc/c Risks, discussing the risks associated with different ac/vi/es in the arc/c, such as oil explora/on, tourism, and shipping trade routes. Addressing arc/c risks, and their poten/al consequences, requires a breadth of exper/se: technological, but also commercial, legal, sociological and governmental. Our panel discussion will discuss arc/c risks, drawing on these different areas of exper/se and the compe/ng interests in the fragile arc/c environment. Convener: Dr Ben Lishman, UCL IRDR Panellists: Guy Yeomans, Founder of Arc/c Futures and Arc/c Hub::London Julian Hunt, Emeritus Professor of Climate Modelling, UCL Tim Stockings, Opera/ons Director, Bri/sh Antarc/c Survey Jill Barref, Senior Research Fellow, Bri/sh Ins/tute of Interna/onal and Compara/ve Law Visualisa6on and Presenta6on of Hazards and Risks The aim of this session is to discuss displaying quan/ta/ve data to wide audiences. At the IRDR we encourage cross–disciplinary research alongside hard science and key ques/ons arise regarding op/mal ways of explaining risk and displaying scien/fic and sta/s/cal data to those without these backgrounds both for other researchers and members of the public and stakeholders. Key ques/ons include how hazard and risk maps should be presented, why scien/fic informa/on has been misunderstood, what tools are available for crea/ng clear visualisa/on of data and how can scien/sts befer present their results for non-­‐scien/fic audiences. There will be a session of talks, addressing different ways that hazards and risks can be presented and visualised for different audiences and purposes. This will be of interest to those who produce the hazard and risk data, and to users of this data who seek befer understanding and usability of this data. Convener: Dr Joanna Faure Walker, UCL IRDR Speakers: Tobias Sturt, Director, Graphic and Guardian Masterclasses in Data Visualisa/on Richard Teeuw, Principal Lecturer, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Portsmouth, Richard Wall, Research Associate, Earth Sciences, University of Liverpool Keynote: Communica6ng Risk and Hazard to Policy Makers By Prof Sir Mark Walport, Government Chief Scien/fic Advisor When scien/sts and other experts communicate risk, hazard, and their associated uncertain/es with policy makers and the broader public, they face challenges in how well their terminology is understood and in the different viewpoints and values that policy makers may associate with risk and hazard. Having frequently faced and overcome these issues in his role as Government Chief Scien/fic Advisor, Sir Mark Walport will address them in his Keynote address. Sir Mark is the Chief Scien/fic Adviser to HM Government and Head of the Government Office for Science. He is Co-­‐Chair of the Prime Minister’s Council for Science and Technology and has been a member of this since 2004. He is a member of a number of interna/onal advisory bodies. He received a knighthood in the 2009 New Year Honours List for services to medical research and was elected as Fellow of The Royal Society in 2011. In Conversa+on on the Management of the Ebola Crisis Convener: Dr Ilan Kelman, UCL IRDR and UCL IGH Dr Michael von Bertele CB OBE FRCP, Humanitarian Director for Save the Children Interna/onal, will be interviewed on the emergence of the Ebola crisis, how this global health crisis has been managed, and his involvement in the management of this crisis with Save the Children. He will be interviewed by Dr Smitha Mundasad, BBC science and health journalist, before answering further ques/ons posed by the audience. Save the Children were approached by DFID in late August 2014 to set up and manage an Ebola treatment centre in Sierra Leone. Against a background of high expecta/on and an escala/ng epidemic they started from zero to recruit and train the staff, build and equip a hospital, and put in place the policies to underpin the delivery of a safe facility. Drawing on personnel from UK, Cuba, and Sierra Leone, they opened on 7 November and by Christmas were running an 80 bed facility delivering very high levels of care. Posters on Calcula6ng, Portraying, Understanding and Reducing Risk Session Chair: Dr Gordon Ross 1. Structural geology and recurrence intervals of ac/ve normal faults in the central and northern Italian Apennines. Zoë K. Watson1, Gerald P. Roberts2, Joanna P. Faure Walker1, Peter Sammonds1, 1 UCL IRDR; 2 Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Birkbeck, University of London 2. The effect of ice rubble on ice-­‐ice sliding Sally Scourfield1, Peter Sammonds1, Ben Lishman1, Kaj Riska2 1 UCL IRDR; 2 TOTAL 3. Valida/on of ground mo/on simula/ons through spectral-­‐shape and dura/on proxies for the nonlinear response of engineered systems Alexandra Tsioulou and Carmine Galasso Both at: Dept. of Civil Environmental & Geoma/c Engineering and Ins/tute for Risk and Disaster Reduc/on, UCL 4. Modeling fluid-­‐induced seismicity Georgios Michas1, Filippos Vallianatos1,2, Peter Sammonds1 1 UCL IRDR, 2 Laboratory of Geophysics and Seismology, Technological Educa/onal Ins/tute of Crete 5. Self-­‐protec/ve behaviour during earthquake shaking Gillian Dacey UCL IRDR 6. Is the deep groundwater in Bangladesh at risk of arsenic contamina/on? Mohammad Shamsudduha1, Anwar Zahid2, William Burgess3 1 UCL IRDR, 2 Ground Water Hydrology, Bangladesh Water Development Board, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 3 Department of Earth Sciences, UCL 7. Permeability in volcanic systems at elevated temperatures and pressures: An Experimental Approach Amy Chadderton1, Peter Sammonds1, Philip Meredith2, Rosanna Smith1, and Hugh Tuffen3 1 UCL IRDR, 2 Department of Earth Sciences, UCL, 3 Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University 8. An interac/ng natural hazards approach to assessing disaster risk Melanie Duncan1, Mirianna Budimir2 and Joel Gill3 1 Bri/sh Geological Survey, 2 Independent Consultant, 3 King’s College London 9. Accumula/on of Risk in Urban India: Ci/es provide transforma/onal opportunity for risk reduc/on Garima Jain and Teja Malladi Indian Ins/tute for Human Seflements, Bangalore, India 10. Insufficient Historical Earthquakes for Probabilis/c Seismic Hazard Assessment – Why Ac/ve Faults are needed Luke N.J. Wedmore1, Gerald P. Roberts2, Joanna P. Faure Walker1, Ioannis Papanikolaou3, Ken McCaffrey4, Peter Sammonds1, Pa/ence A. Cowie5, Laura C. Gregory6, Zoe K. Watson1, Alessandro Maria Michep7 1 UCL IRDR, 2 Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Birkbeck College, University of London, 3 Laboratory Mineralogy – Geology, Agricultural University of Athens, Greece, 4 Department of Earth Sciences, Durham University, 5 University of Bergen, Department of Earth Science, Bergen, Norway, 6 School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, 7 Dipar/mento di Scienza e Alta Tecnologia, Università degli Studi dell’Insubria, Como, Italy 11. The need for detailed fault measurements across ac/ve faults for seismic hazard Joanna Faure Walker UCL IRDR 12. Integra/ng Disaster Risk Reduc/on concept into chemistry curriculum in secondary high school in Indonesia. A case study in Banda Aceh, Indonesia. Nurmalahaya/ Nurdin UCL IRDR 13. Are earthquakes predictable? A study on magnitude correla/ons in California. Katerina Stavrianaki, Gordon J. Ross, Peter R. Sammonds UCL IRDR 14. Engineering Applica/ons of Earthquake Early Warning Systems Omar Velazquez Or/z and Carmine Galasso Both at: Dept. of Civil Environmental & Geoma/c Engineering and IRDR, UCL 15. Enabling Disaster Risk Reduc/on (DRR) Knowledge by Working Together (?): Insights from non-­‐European Contexts Funda Atun1, Scira Menoni1, Patrick Pigeon2, Fernando Briones3, María-­‐José Jiménez4, Mariano García-­‐
Fernández4 1 Politecnico di Milano, Department of Architecture and Urban Studies (DAStU), Italy, 2 Université de Savoie-­‐
Mont-­‐Blanc, Chambéry, France, 3 Center of Research and Higher Studies in Social Anthropology (CIESAS), Mexico DF, Mexico, 4 Ins/tute of Geosciences (CSIC,UCM), Madrid, Spain 16. The impact of disasters on poli/cal trust and sa/sfac/on with the government Frederike Albrecht Department of Government and Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala University 17. Challenges in Collabora/ve Disaster Risk Reduc/on and Management Jenni Koivisto1 and Helena Hermansson2 1 Centre for Climate and Safety / Centre for Natural Disaster Studies, Karlstad University, 2 Department of Government, Uppsala University, Swedish Na/onal Defence College / Centre for Natural Disaster Studies 18. Understanding and reducing Cascading Disasters: Addressing the vulnerability path Gianluca Pescaroli UCL IRDR 19. Collabora/ve risk management across the London health economy Liz Clark and Chloe Sellwood Both at: NHS England (London) and London Local Health Resilience Partnership 20. Fuzzy classifica/on of the disaster risk within the socio-­‐economic sepng of the affected area Sara Saremi Brunel Business School 21. Frequency-­‐Magnitude Distribu/on and Heat Flow in Greece GiorgosPapadakis1, FilipposVallianatos1,2, Peter Sammonds1 1 UCL IRDR, 2 Technological Educa/onal Ins/tute of Crete, Laboratory of Geophysics and Seismology, Crete, Greece 22. The deforma/on characteris/cs and response rela/onship with the influencing factors of the typical colluvial landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Ying CAO1,2, Kunlong YIN1 1 Department of Engineering Faculty, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China, 2 UCL IRDR 23. Fire Smart Territory: a wildfire risk management concept based on a social-­‐ecological approach Fan/na Tedim1, Viforio Leone2, Gavriil Xanthopoulos3 1 University of Porto, Geography Department, Porto, Portugal, 2 University of Basilicata, Department of Crop Systems, Potenza, Italy, 3 Hellenic Agricultural Organiza/on "Demeter", Ins/tute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems, Athens, Greece 24. Government-­‐to-­‐Ci/zens (G2C) communica/ons in the post-­‐disaster reconstruc/on phase: Emilia Romagna earthquakes case study Serena Tagliacozzo UCL IRDR 25. The importance of effec/ve hazard communica/on and data sensi/vity: hazard mapping of Campi Flegrei Danielle Charlton, Christopher Kilburn, Stephen Edwards, Rosa Sobradelo UCL Hazard Centre & UCL IRDR 26. Gendering risk communica/on – lessons for emergency managers Kevin Blanchard DRR Dynamics 27. Many Strong Voices: Dealing with change in the Arc/c and on small island developing states (SIDS) Ilan Kelman1, John Crump2, Tiina Kurvits2, Stavros Mavrogenis3 1 UCL IRDR and IGH, 2 GRID-­‐Arendal, Norway, 3 Panteion University of Athens, Greece