CFS Bulletin Issue 8: September 2014
New research from
UCL: Automated
handwriting analysis
Message from the director….
Welcome to the CFS Bulletin. It is an exciting time for forensic
science as we look to the new academic year. There is now a
greater recognition of the need for professional practice and
academic research to be working together. In partnership we have
the potential to develop key research questions and articulate
answers to those questions that are implementable in the dynamic
and rapidly changing work of forensic investigations. The CFS
aims to be a positive voice within the forensic science domain, and we aim for our
research agenda to speak to current issues as well as develop foundational science.
As always, we would be delighted to hear from you, and to develop a collaborative
research agenda.
- Dr Ruth Morgan
UCL Locard-White
Prize 2013: Award for
best MSc dissertation
CFS Seminar - Professor Dan Krane:
Attaching statistical weights to
forensic DNA profiles.
In this Issue
Attaching statistical
weights to forensic
DNA profiles
Outreach: Dr James
French runs training
session for chemistry
teachers
Dr Itiel Dror awarded
a prize for ‘Excellence
in Training’
Conference: UCL
Centre for Forensic
Sciences at the AAFS
2014
Upcoming Events
@UCLForensicSci
Prof. Dan Krane, Professor in Biological
Sciences and President of the Faculty at
Wright State University in Ohio, Chair of
the Ohio Faculty Council, and recently
named ACE Fellow by the American
Council on Education, was kind enough to
spare a few hours from his busy schedule
testifying at Blackfriars Crown Court to
give a seminar to our students at the CFS.
As President and Co-founder of Forensic
Bioinformatic Services Inc.
http://www.ucl.ac.uk/forensic-sciences
(www.bioforensics.com), a company that
provides expert witness services for cases
involving forensic DNA analysis, Prof.
Krane has provided expert testimony in
more than 100 criminal cases across the
world. His international casework
experience and current research in forensic
DNA analysis and bioinformatics was an
excellent standpoint from which to outline
the use of statistics in attributing evidential
weight to forensic DNA profiles.
He started by giving a brief overview of the
use of DNA profiling in casework,
including the standard statistical analysis
(the ‘random match probability’) that is
used when comparing DNA profiles from
single individuals. Although such singlesource DNA profiles can be encountered in
casework, it is more common to recover
‘mixed’ DNA profiles, that is, profiles that
contain DNA from more than one
individual. If there is DNA present from
two individuals, it can be possible to
separate the mixture into the two
individuals’ respective profiles when there
is a distinct difference between the amounts
of DNA contributed by the
individuals or when one of the
individuals’ profiles is known (for
example, DNA from a victim).
However, many mixed profiles are
too complex to be routinely
statistically analysed; as such, more
complex statistical methods are
being employed to attribute
statistical weight to these profiles,
but these methods come with their
own issues.
For many of these statistical
methods, it is crucial to correctly
establish the number of individuals
from which the DNA has come, be
it two, three, or more individuals.
Research from Prof. Krane’s
laboratory has demonstrated that
this is not as easy as it may seem,
and often the number of individuals
who contributed DNA to the
mixture can be underestimated
(http://www.bioforensics.com/leiden09/
empirical_mixtures.pdf). An incorrect
assessment of the number of
contributors to a profile may lead to
incorrect conclusions being drawn
as to who could have, or could not
have, contributed to the profile.
This could result in missing
evidence that could lead to the
perpetrator or result in implicating
an innocent person.
An additional issue facing the
development of these statistical
methods is ensuring that the right
data from the DNA profile is
inputted into the statistical analysis.
Often the DNA profile can reveal
that information is missing from
some parts of the profile; such lack
of data is referred to as ‘drop-out’.
There are differing opinions as to
how to deal with drop-out, with one
school of thought being to ignore
data at the parts of the profile that
exhibit drop-out. However, this can
actually be prejudicial to the
defendant. Prof. Krane provided an
example of case he has recently
worked in which the DNA analyst
for the prosecution had ignored the
data from the parts of the evidential
DNA profile that showed drop-out;
this allowed DNA from the
defendant to be considered a likely
contributor to the profile. However,
when all of the data was considered,
it was found that DNA matching the
defendant could actually be
excluded from the crimestain
profile.
With the increasing sensitivity of
DNA profiling methods, more and
more casework DNA profiles are
being recovered that are complex
mixtures, and given the above
issues, it has therefore become
notoriously difficult to determine
accurate and robust statistical
weights for these profiles. In recent
years, statisticians are being called
on to analyse DNA profiles,
resulting in several different
statistical methods being applied in
different courts across the UK and
abroad. In addition to research into
population genetics and increasing
the sensitivity of current DNA
profiling methods (https://sciencemath.wright.edu/people/dan-krane),
Prof Krane’s team are also
developing their own statistical
solution to these complex issues and
Prof. Krane brought his seminar to a
close by asking us to consider what
if drop-out is considered liberally
(rather than restrictively, as in the
above case example) and the
mixture is compared to the
reference profile of the suspect
from the outset of the analysis
process…would this allow
accurate statistical weights to be
attributed to complex mixed DNA
profiles?
This will not be the last the CFS
will hear from Prof. Krane; far
from it, as we continue to
collaborate with him and his team
in both casework and research into
various aspects of forensic DNA
analysis and the dynamics of trace
DNA (http://www.ucl.ac.uk/forensicsciences/research/Trace_Evidence)
-Dr Georgina Meakin
(UCL, CFS)
Automated handwriting
analysis: the discovery of a
genetic influence on
handwriting
Handwriting analysis by a human
expert has often been used in
forensic science to establish whether
the identity of a writer of a piece of
script matches that of a sample.
Recent advances in computer vision
have allowed for the automation of
handwriting analysis with very
encouraging results.
For the problem of writer
verification, where the task is to
determine if two pieces of text were
written by the same person, several
methods are now achieving
performance levels of over 99%
when tested with dataset sizes of
several hundred writers.
Crucially, the use of large datasets
of writing samples means that the
accuracy of methods can be clearly
determined.
Whilst the focus has generally been
on the problem of writer
verification, techniques are being
developed to extract other
information, such as gender, from
handwriting. Recent research has
also demonstrated the presence of a
genetic element to handwriting.
In a twins study, using automated
handwriting analysis techniques
developed at UCL, it was found that
identical twins were significantly
more likely to have similar
handwriting than
non-identical twins, an effect which
appears to be present from
childhood. This suggests there is
further for scope automated
handwriting analysis to provide
useful information about the writer.
– Dr Andrew Newell
(Research Fellow
CoMPLEX, UCL)
UCL Locard-White Prize
The UCL Locard-White prize for
excellence is awarded to the highest
achieving student on the MSc Crime
and Forensic Science, annually.
This year, the prize giving took
place on 28th March. The recipient
of the 2012-2013 prize was Abigail
Bambridge, who gave a presentation
on her dissertation work during the
event.
The prize was awarded by Sue
White, a member of the External
Advisory Board of the Centre for
the Forensic Sciences.
Abigail’s work looked at whether or
not bloodstains can be seen or
identified on clothes after machine
washing. This work could help
investigators to obtain crucial
biological evidence despite attempts
to ‘wash it out’.
CFS Outreach
On the 16th June, Dr James French
ran a training session at North
London Collegiate School (NLCS)
as part of a professional
enrichment programme for
teaching staff who will be taking
up positions at a franchise school,
NLCS Jeju, in South Korea.
A series of subject-specific training
sessions took place and academics
from a wide variety of disciplines
and institutions were present.
James’ audience was made up of
new chemistry staff and the session
was focused on introducing the
staff to key ideas in forensic
science and surveying the use of
chemical analysis techniques in
criminal investigations.
The second half of the session
covered James’ work on gunshot
residue (GSR), with a particular
focus on the analysis of GSR
evidence using SEM-EDX.
the first ever Starbucks (as well as
one on the corner of every street)
and the Seattle Space Needle
observation tower complete with
a 184m high revolving restaurant.
Association for Business
Psychology (ABP) awards
prize to Dr Itiel Dror
Our Honorary Senior Research
Associate, Dr Itiel Dror, has been
awarded the prize for 'Excellence in
Training' by ABP for his work on
cognitive informed training to create
awareness and reduce cognitive bias
in forensic work. Dr Dror also
received the Chairman's Award, for
overall recognition across all the 17
categories, for the best
achievements for 'Excellence in
Business Psychology’.
impact -already being used around
the world", "Entirely focused on
application of conceptual models –
underpinned by deep research", and
"Impact is highly impressive".
For more details of the awards,
please visit the following link:
http://www.theabp.org.uk/news/cog
nitive-informed-training-to-createawareness-and-reduce-cognitivebias-in-forensic-work.aspx
The ABP's Awards Programme
offers a unique and distinctive
platform for the celebration of
excellence in Business Psychology.
The Awards focus on demonstrating
how applying an understanding of
the science of human behavior can
impact and deliver practical value to
organisations.
The judges commented that Dr
Dror's work is: "Truly outstanding
and inspiring", "A highly rigorous
application of relevant theoretical
frameworks", "Truly innovative,
breaking entirely new ground in a
most challenging context",
"Internationally ground-breaking
Poster presentations were given by
the CFS PhD students Helen
Earwaker and Michaela Regan.
Helen presented her research
entitled “Finger-mark Submission
Decision Making Within a United
Kingdom Fingerprint Laboratory:
Do Experts Get What They
Need?” and Michaela presented
her work concerning “The Use of
Gunshot Residue Upon Clothing as
an Item of Evidence”. Both posters
gained a lot of attention and
brought up some interesting
discussion points.
UCL Centre for Forensic Sciences
at the AAFS 2014
This year the American Academy of
Forensic Science’s annual meeting
was held at the Washington State
Convention Centre in Downtown
Seattle, WA. Local attractions
included the Pike Market, where
this welcoming sign was displayed
amongst a table of fresh fish for
sale,
Three of the CFS PhD students
gave oral presentations at the
AAFS this year, Dagmar Heinrich
and Sherry Nakhaeizadeh spoke in
Physical Anthropology sessions
discussing “Sharp Force Trauma
Recognition in Burned Remains”
and “Cognitive Bias in Forensic
Anthropology: Visual Assessments
of Skeletal Remains Are
Susceptible to Confirmation Bias”.
Georgia Mcculloch gave her
presentation in the Criminalistics
session asking “Is High
Performance Liquid
Chromatography (HPLC) a Useful
Addition to Current Geo-Forensic
Analytical Techniques?”
great potential to be adopted by
crime prevention agencies. It was a
welcomed topic to be brought to the
attention of delegates at such a well
attended conference.
– Sally Gamble
(CFS PhD Student)
Upcoming Events
2014 ANZFSS, 22nd International
Symposium on the Forensic
Sciences,
Adelaide – 31st Aug to 4th Sept
The soil contingent among the CFS
research group attended talks
addressing the use of geo-forensic
evidence, from the extraction
methods used for identifying trace
explosives in soil samples, to the
identification of meta genomic data
from organisms found within soil
Other interesting presentations
included an evaluation of the
evidence used in the many trials of
Amanda Knox and Raffaele
Sollecito for the murder of Meredith
Kercher, by Luciano Garofano and
Michele Vaira. The evidence from
the original trial was outlined and
the issues surrounding the value and
use of that evidence presented. The
final presentation of the meeting,
given by Eric Stauffer, concerned
the question of whether forensic
science should only be limited to
use in court in relation to the
emergence of forensic intelligenceled policing. This area of forensic
science is particularly important for
harnessing forensic evidence for
pro-active crime prevention and has
Biennial Firearms Conference
with ENFSI Firearms & GSR
Working Group Meeting,
Leeds – 17th – 19th Sept 2014
2014 Forensic Science Society,
Annual Autumn Conference
“The changing face & pace of
trace evidence”,
University of Leicester (UK) – 7th
to 8th Nov 2014
Forensic Science Society, Annual
Student Conference,
University of Huddersfield (UK)
– 6th Dec 2014
CFS Blog
The Centre’s blog is now up and
running. For updates about our
research seminars, thoughts from
our PhD students and general
news, please follow us here:
http://blogs.ucl.ac.uk/forensicsciences/
Get in touch
If you have any comments,
suggestions or would like to
contribute to future issues, please
get in touch: cfs@ucl.ac.uk
Forensic Science Society,
Postgraduate Research
Symposium,
University of Leicester (UK) – 7th
Nov 2014
American Society of Criminology
Annual Meeting, San Francisco,
19th -22nd Nov 2014
London Geological Society,
Forensic Geoscience Group
Meeting (call for abstracts,
deadline 26th Sep),
Burlington House, London – 3rd
Dec 2014
CFS Bulletin
September 2014
Editor: Dr Aysha Chaudhary