300 Million Americans and Counting
Is Growth the Only Option?
Joseph Chamie
Director of Research
Center for Migration Studies
New York, NY
5 October 2006
Symposium
Population Resource Center
National Press Club
Washington, D.C.
1
Q: Is growth the only option?
A: Absolutely not!
2
3
“When in the Course of human events it becomes
necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands
which have connected them with another and to assume
among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal
station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's
God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of
mankind requires that they should declare the causes
which impel them to the separation.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are
created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator
with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are
Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”
(U.S. Declaration of Independence, July 4, 1776)
4
“He has endeavoured to prevent the
population of these States; for that
purpose obstructing the Laws for
Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to
pass others to encourage their
migrations hither, and raising the
conditions of new Appropriations of
Lands.”
(U.S. Declaration of Independence, July 4, 1776)
5
“All our industries are thriving; the rate
of interest is low; new railroads are
being constructed; a vast immigration is
increasing our population, capital, and
labor; new enterprises in great number
are in progress, and our commercial
relations with other countries are
improving.”
(Pres. Rutherford B. Hayes, December 6, 1880)
6
“This is the only country in the world
which experiences this constant and
repeated rebirth. Other countries depend
upon the multiplication of their own
native people. This country is
constantly drinking strength out of new
sources by the voluntary association
with it of great bodies of strong men
and forward-looking women out of
other lands.”
(Pres. Woodrow Wilson, May 10, 1915)
7
“Shall we be a great nation? That is the
question for the third century-and for
the next 100 million Americans.
…challenges that will confront us as we
go from 200 million Americans to 300
million Americans-as we begin our
third century of life in this land. They
are mighty challenges that are hurled at
us by the past and by the very swift
march of progress in this country.”
(Pres. Lyndon B. Johnson, November 20, 1967)
8
“(Stay tuned in).”
(Pres. George W. Bush, 2006)
9
U.S. Population: 1776-2006
(millions)
350
2006:300
300
250
1967: 200
200
150
1915: 100
100
1880: 50
50
1776: 2.5
0
1776 1786 1796 1806 1816 1826 1836 1846 1856 1866 1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006
10
U.S. Births, Deaths and Immigrants: 1776-2006
(millions)
5
Births
4
3
Deaths
2
1
Immigrants
0
1776
1786
1796
1806
1816
1826
1836
1846
1856
1866
1876
1886
1896
1906
1916
1926
1936
1946
1956
1966
1976
1986
1996
11
2006
U.S. Population With and Without Immigration: 1776-2006
(millions)
300
300
250
200
With immigration
150
124
100
50
Without immigration
0
1776 1786 1796 1806 1816 1826 1836 1846 1856 1866 1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006
12
Americans Ever Lived: 1776-2006
600
(millions)
500
400
Deceased: 258
300
200
Living: 300
100
0
Ever lived: 558 million
13
Americans Living and Ever Lived: 1776-2006
1776 Pop.
Births
Immigrants
Americans Ever Lived
2,527,450
483,465,018
72,105,369
558,097,837
Living
Deceased
300,000,000
258,097,837
Proportion living today
54%
14
Components of U.S. Population Growth: 2004
(millions)
4.50
4.12
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.66
2.40
2.50
2.00
1.72
1.47
1.50
0.95
1.00
0.50
0.00
Population
Growth
Births
Deaths
Natural
increase
Immigrants
Immigrants
1990s
15
U.S. Immigrants and Naturalized: 1776-2006
(thousands)
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
Immigrants
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
Naturalized
200
0
1776 1786 1796 1806 1816 1826 1836 1846 1856 1866 1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006
16
Opinions of U.S. Public and Leaders on Legal Immigration, 2002
70
60
60
55
Percent
50
40
27
30
21
20
18
15
10
0
Public
Increased
Leaders
Maintained
Decreased
17
Public Opinion on Legal Immigration for Selected Countries, 1995
70
60
Percent
50
40
30
20
10
0
Canada
Japan
Philippines
Increase
New
Zealand
Maintain
United
States
W. Europe E. Europe
Reduce
18
U.S. Total Fertility Rate by Mother's Ethnicity: 2000-2003
2.92
3.00
2.50
2.61
2.04
2.00
1.83
1.85
Cuban
White
2.03
2.09
Puerto
Rican
Black
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
U.S.
Total
Other Mexican
Hispanic
19
US Public Opinion on Future Population Size of Country, 2006
35
33
32
30
25
Percent
25
20
15
9
10
5
0
Increase
Maintain
Decrease
Exceed 400
million
20
Population of USA by Variant, 1950-2050
500
460
Population (millions)
450
400
420
395
350
338
300
322
250
200
High
150
Medium
Low
100
Zero mig.
50
Census
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
21
Percent of U. S. Population 65 Years and Older by Variant: 1950, 2005 & 2050
25.0
19.7
20.0
23.7
Low
Zero Migration
20.6
17.7
15.0
10.0
24.2
12.3
8.3
5.0
0.0
1950
2005
High
Constant
Medium
2050
22
U.S. Potential Support Ratios by Variant: 1950, 2005 & 2050
(15-64/65+)
8.0
7.7
7.0
5.6
6.0
5.0
3.5
4.0
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.6
2.5
Low
Zero Migration
2.0
1.0
0.0
1950
2005
High
Constant
Medium
2050
23
U.S. Population Mid-Century
(millions)
1. Fertility (1.85) &
migration (0 million)
2. Fertility (2.10) &
migration (1.1 million)
3. Fertility (2.35) &
migration (1.1 million)
4. Fertility (2.35) &
migration (1.5 million)
1. 320
2. 420
3. 460
4. Near 500
24
Population
Decline, Growth, Stabilization
Economics
Power
Politics
Ethnicity
Family values
Cultural momentum
Demographics
Environment
25
“Recognizing that our population cannot grow
indefinitely, and appreciating the advantages of
moving now toward the stabilization of
population, the Commission recommends that
the nation welcome and plan for a stabilized
population.
The nation has nothing to fear from a gradual
approach to population stabilization. ... From
an economic point of view, a reduction in the
rate of population growth would bring
important benefits.”
(President's Commission on Population Growth and the
American Future, 1972)
26
“Growing populations demand more food,
goods, services, and space. Where there is
scarcity, population increase aggravates it."
"After two years of concentrated effort, we
have concluded that, in the long run, no
substantial benefits will result from further
growth of the Nation's population, rather that
the gradual stabilization of our population
would contribute significantly to the Nation's
ability to solve its problems.”
(Select Commission on Immigration and Refugee Policy,
1981)
27
“Goal 8: Population
Move toward stabilization of U.S. population.”
“There is nothing inherently wrong with a
population -- even a large one -- meeting its material
needs by consuming resources and creating wastes.
Problems arise when the numbers of people and the
scale, composition, and pattern of their consumption
and waste generation combine to have negative
effects on the environment, the economy, and
society. Together, the size of the population and the
scale of consumption impinge significantly on
American society's ability to achieve sustainability.”
(President's Council on Sustainable Development, 1996)
28
Closing points
1. Fertility around replacement
2. Immigration major growth factor
3. US population ageing
4. I’ll see you in 35 years, for …
Symposium: 400 Million & Counting
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Thank you!
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